JRM is my MP. I think the Conservative majority here will be hard to usurp because of the constituency boundary that we have now. The only thing I'll say in favour of him is that even if he doesn't agree with your view on something, he'll write back and say why. I may not agree with the reply, but at least he did it. Before the boundary was redrawn our previous Labour MP would write some mealy-mouthed reply that hid his true views, probably because he didn't want to lose your vote.
I can't stand most of JRM's views but I will admit to shaking his hand. I wrote to him asking him to support a debate in the house I was personally passionate about, I wasn't expecting much but he hand wrote a letter back replying to my story and said he'd try to be there. He then was and wrote a follow up letter and a copy of Hansard, and also helped vote through the measures being debated. That was the right to paid leave for bereaved parents when a child dies (up until recently you had no right to paid time off) and also money available to help pay for funeral costs. A few weeks after I was in London with my wife and as we happened to be walking past Parliament by chance he was stood outside. He remembered us when I mentioned the topic and I was able to thank him for his support and shake his hand.
Sorry for that tangent, but I do think occasionally we all need reminding that even when you don't agree with your local politician, to the point they can make you angry with some of their views, they can still do important work for their constituents.
As for this by-election, in isolation yes it's a standard mid-term protest vote. But the wider context is significant.
Firstly, the by-election is of his own making, and the run up (with the three line whip to save Paterson's skin, then the about face) caused a lot of ill will with his MPs. We've had the ongoing parties saga that unlike a lot of sleazy stories is cutting through to the majority of the public who only have a passing interest in politics (I think possibly as procurement contracts being given to chums is humdrum to Joe Public as it's just "well that's what rich people do all the time", whereas pretty much every member of the public sacrificed something last Christmas so it hits home). And the Tory rebellion this week on the further covid control measures shows he's losing his party.
In a way the Christmas break is coming at a perfect time for him, like the end of round bell for a boxer on the ropes.
But the Tory party can be ruthless and make no mistake that if the likes of Truss or Sunak think they could grab power they will be circling. It's happened many a time in the past.
