May Mogg and Brexit what just happened

My understanding is Mogg and the hard brexiteers of the Tories put forward 4 amendments to the chequers agreement which May accepted to avoid it being blocked entirely and its now been past by a tiny margin totally because of the 4 labour MPs who voted against the rest of the party. These amendments will make it almost certainly be rejected by Europe (which is the intention behind it) and could make no deal brexit much more likely. But none of this is that clear does anyone else have a clue whats going on?

simon12 said:

My understanding is Mogg and the hard brexiteers of the Tories put forward 4 amendments to the chequers agreement which May accepted to avoid it being blocked entirely and its now been past by a tiny margin totally because of the 4 labour MPs who voted against the rest of the party. These amendments will make it almost certainly be rejected by Europe (which is the intention behind it) and could make no deal brexit much more likely. But none of this is that clear does anyone else have a clue whats going on?

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Sounds about right. I think the only way to please Brexiteers will be a no deal Brexit anyway. I think the it’ll be bad for us economically but the whole thing is a mess and i can’t see a solution to it.

T.May said "no deal is better than a bad deal" having read this Independent article i have a feeling she is talking about herself not the people who voted leave.


After Theresa May originally used the “no deal” formulation in her Lancaster House speech in January, many pointed out its foolishness, its lack of realism, for all the reasons outlined above. And she stopped using it for a time. So why is it back?

One interpretation is that this is a negotiating tactic from the Prime Minister. Economic game theory suggests that if you’re not prepared to signal that you are prepared to walk away from the negotiating table, you reveal that you are the weaker party and can ultimately be rolled over.

But there’s also a possibility that Theresa May and her team are actually describing their own circumstances, rather than those of the country, when they say no deal is better than a bad deal. It’s distinctly possible that a mutually advantageous transitional post-Brexit trade arrangement, probably involving continued UK payments to the EU budget and freedom of movement for EU citizens, would be dismissed as a “bad deal” by the right-wing press and her hardline Brexiteer backbenchers. And they might well turn their guns on the Prime Minister if she signed up to it.

They could topple her, even if that transitional deal were firmly in the economic interests of the British public. That threat is obviously greater if her parliamentary majority, as seems increasingly possible, turns out to be relatively modest. And, for May, the prospect of such a backlash from her media allies and backbenchers might seem worse than the bad deal, even if she fully understands the economic consequences of no deal for the country.

As well as game theory, economists talk of the “principal-agent problem”. This describes how agents can sometimes be incentivised to work in their own interests rather than the principals who commissioned them. May would be the agent and the British people the principal in these Brexit negotiations. We will need to watch very closely whose interests she is really serving



.

God know what is going on. I dont think even the Government know whats going. I just think she is just trying to hang onto her job at any cost. She proposed bringing the PMs holidays forward (possibly in an effort to stop anyone from her party trying to oust her before the summer recess)

Wasn't she a remainer anyway so whatever she does isn't what she thinks is best for the country (unless its a plan to avoid brexit)

simon12 said:

Wasn't she a remainer anyway so whatever she does isn't what she thinks is best for the country

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That is correct.

.

Hi!
The referendum was arranged, initially, as a sop to the Tory Eurosceptics, and now those same Eurosceptics are pulling the wheels off the government's attempts to find a deal that is good for the UK.
A few MPs are running the show.

How long can she stay in the job, PMQ's is going to be interesting.

As much as I don't want a Corbyn government, I am starting to think a general election may have to take place.
Lib Dems - another vote on Brexit
Labour - one leg in one leg out
Conservatives - leave
Probably too simplistic but you get my drift.

If we had another vote on Brexit and it went the remain route, would we even get the same terms and conditions we had before?

simon12 said:

............. does anyone else have a clue whats going on?

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Personally, I doubt it very much!

What I DO know is that for anyone going on holiday to the Euro Zone a GB Pound is now worth LESS than €1.10.

The "Euro Sceptics" were telling us that the Euro was failing and how wonderful it was to have the GB Pound so what happened?

I think it was called The Referendum. :thumb:

I think we would as they don't want us to leave in case we are then the thin edge of the wedge, there may be reasons why we cannot simply go back to how it was before and no doubt that'll be the case.

Chippy_Tea said:

.......... there may be reasons why we cannot simply go back to how it was before and no doubt that'll be the case.

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I agree! However, I thought that the whole purpose of "Vote Leave" was that the people didn't want "how it was" and were choosing the brand new world of freedom from the EU and whatever went with it.

Well, they've got it and if it's not what they expected they (and the rest of us) will have to live with it! Sorry!

They don't want how it was and It's not what they voted for, the tories have ****** them.

I do have some sympathy for the government.
If it was just about developing a mutually beneficial agreement, then we could have the basics all done and dusted right now.
But lets not forget, the EU told us right from the start that Brexit could not be a success because others may follow.
The EU are prepared to inflict hardship on the populations of member states and the UK for the sake of political ideology.
I only hope that the migration crisis, huge youth unemployment in southern countries and the resultant growth of Eurosceptic nationalist governments across the EU throw one huge spanner in the works.
It's begun already :thumb:

Anyone remember this?

Sorry its off topic but didn't think it needed its own thread.

Saisonator said:

As much as I don't want a Corbyn government, I am starting to think a general election may have to take place.
Lib Dems - another vote on Brexit
Labour - one leg in one leg out
Conservatives - leave
Probably too simplistic but you get my drift.

If we had another vote on Brexit and it went the remain route, would we even get the same terms and conditions we had before?

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I dont think so. I dont think we get the opt outs and some of the other perks we had as a 'senior' member. That's one of the things the remain campaign didnt highlight during the referendum.

Saisonator said:

I do have some sympathy for the government.
If it was just about developing a mutually beneficial agreement, then we could have the basics all done and dusted right now.
But lets not forget, the EU told us right from the start that Brexit could not be a success because others may follow.
The EU are prepared to inflict hardship on the populations of member states and the UK for the sake of political ideology.
I only hope that the migration crisis, huge youth unemployment in southern countries and the resultant growth of Eurosceptic nationalist governments across the EU throw one huge spanner in the works.
It's begun already :thumb:

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I haven't. The Gubberment have had nearly two years to come up with a plan and all May as done is kick the can down the road until it's all of a sudden become rather pressing for her to do something.
The other thing the EU told us right from the start is if we wanted a deal off them, there were certain options (e.g. Norway and Canada models) to choose from or we could just walk away. May just kept returning with her own options which were never on the table and the EU would never agree to.
But your right in that the EU have to demonstrate that things cant be easy to leave the EU or others may want to do so too

I'd feel sorry for any government that was having to implement the disaster that is Brexit.

Unless it was a Tory party government who were responsible for it.

I feel for the most disadvantaged in society who will suffer, as ever, the most.

I feel nothing at all for overweeningly ambitious Tory politicians who have put career and ego above the national interest.

Very interesting Podcast about Britain and the EU.
Would recommend .

https://www.acast.com/dansnowshistoryhit/brexit-russia-anddivide-rule-steveanalyst

Due to more posts being removed could I ask members to stop posting that leave voters didn't have a clue what they were voting for I would have thought by now everyone who has that view has had their say on the subject and all it does is cause the same old arguments ending in the thread being removed.