Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

[Bjorn Toulouse]

My audi A2 (one owner) is 20 years old, done 120,000 mile still going strong, no rust due to the aluminium shell, still does about 50-60 to the gallon.
Nice simple car, wont be changing it any time soon. Plug in cars simply couldn't work where I live as on street parking is a premium and 8 flats per close... I'm lucky if I ever get parked within two blocks to my home.

 

[dad_of_jon]

The battery is quite small and system only helps the engine when setting off and heavy acceleration by using the alternator as an electric motor, the battery is charged under braking.
Suzuki have stopped using the 1.0l three cylinder engine which I find strange as it was in more than one model so now your only option is the 1.4l mild hybrid.

Yup the battery on mild hybrids are much smaller I was thinking about the explosion of battery production caused by electrification.

I had a swift hybrid courtesy car 2020 model whilst my vitara had its first service and it was the 1242cc engine. It wasn't as punchy as the 1.0 turbo hybrid I almost bought for mrs DOJ. I can only wonder if the 1.0T engine costs more and with all the extra safety kit the price would have become too expensive. The new swift 1.2 does 0-60 in 13.1 the old 1.2 did it in 11.1 and the 1.0t did it in 10.3. - the 1.0t averaged 49mpg whilst the courtesy car was getting 47.5. I can't help thinking Suzuki have shot themselves in the foot. As for the battery assistance I find that the battery depletes quickly if you want to make swift progress in the car. In a hilly area with stop start traffic it's not brill. On motorways the system is a bit more successful.

 

[Justin Dean]

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Per message in forum this is a reply

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I am just fearful that by 2030 many many many requirements will remain unfulfilled. Petrol / diesel could be the answer, as technology / infrastructure is in place until suitable alternatives are available.

As I've said upthread, I would rather have a target of 95% or 98% in say 2029 rather than 100% of new sales in 2030 - there's always a few marginal cases where the change is disproportionate to their impact on what you're really trying to change. But we know that we've got a government that isn't always very good on devilish detail, so we are where we are.

It's also worth noting that even if all new vehicles are non-fossil in 2030, that doesn't mean that fossil vehicles disappear overnight, they will still be hanging around well into the 2040s.

But I think the real point is that we are now in a position where the limitations in almost every sector of transport are no longer technology, but cultural and investment. Which is a really big deal. And inevitably, as the "core" market for cars, vans and trucks develops, you'll see the same technology getting transferred into specialist areas - as a daft example, the last Top Gear put the guts of a Tesla into an ice cream van.

So I'm reasonably optimistic, without underestimating the huge challenges ahead. It's not like we've not seen transport technology evolve in the past, sometimes in ways that require changes in consumer behaviour - we can no longer fly to New York in 4 hours, and we can no longer put our personal transport in a field for it to eat more fuel. So it's never quite the same - and bearing in mind how far we have come since 2010 when the only lithium car was the Tesla Roadster, which requirements do you think won't be fulfilled in 2030??

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Northern_Brewer said:


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Per message in forum this is a reply

And I simply couldn't work out what you were saying with "Not sure what less efficient than charging electricity is right" - it makes no sense.

 

[Justin Dean]

And I simply couldn't work out what you were saying with "Not sure what less efficient than charging electricity is right" - it makes no sense.

I can not be botheted to explain it. Read up

 

[Northern_Brewer]

It's kinda hard to debate with you if you can't even write in plain English. I literally don't understand the sentence structure of "less efficient than charging electricity".

If you're trying to dispute that electric propulsion is less efficient than eg hydrogen then you're just wrong - it's typically 90% efficient from battery to wheel, whereas eg hydrogen struggles to be half that, and that's before the energy losses in making the hydrogen in the first place.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I had a swift hybrid courtesy car 2020 model whilst my vitara had its first service and it was the 1242cc engine. It wasn't as punchy as the 1.0 turbo hybrid I almost bought for mrs DOJ. I

I believe the 1.4l engine in the mild hybrid is the same one in the Swift sport so it should be fairly bullet proof and fairly rapid.

I can't help thinking Suzuki have shot themselves in the foot. As for the battery assistance I find that the battery depletes quickly if you want to make swift progress in the car. In a hilly area with stop start traffic it's not brill. On motorways the system is a bit more successful.

I have a feeling this is all about emissions they wont be overly bothered how long the charge in the small battery lasts as long as it gets the MPG figures up and emissions down.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It's kinda hard to debate with you if you can't even write in plain English. I literally don't understand the sentence structure of "less efficient than charging electricity".

 

[dad_of_jon]

I believe the 1.4l engine in the mild hybrid is the same one in the Swift sport so it should be fairly bullet proof and fairly rapid.



I have a feeling this is all about emissions they wont be overly bothered how long the charge in the small battery lasts as long as it gets the MPG figures up and emissions down.

yup it's emissions. the 1.4 non-hybrid is pretty brisk. As an aside I fill mine with 99 ron instead of 95 and have noticed a further boost :-)

 

[trummy]

Unlikely to happen - in the same way as happened with phone batteries, swapability comes at a price in terms of packaging etc, and as I keep saying - most people never drive more than 250 miles in a day anyway, so swapability is making their cars worse for no benefit.

No reason to have uniform phone batteries so not a good analogy. Probably a better one would be the OBD port on cars. For my sins I had a Rover 416 which could only be used by a Rover main dealer as it was Rover unique. The EU (I understand) made manufacturers use a standard plug and made the basic ECU software uniform, so it can be done. Also there is instances where different manufactures use the same platform or share engines - so where there is a will there is away.

I totally agree re journey mileage - I believe that some leased EVs come with an understanding that a few times a year one can 'borrow' an IC car for the odd long journey (holidays e.t.c) . That seems a good compromise.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

No reason to have uniform phone batteries

Indeed, but I was talking about the tension between consumers and product designers over whether a battery should be integrated or swappable. I'm the kind of person who keeps their phone for 5 years or more, and I kept buying phones with swappable batteries even though they were bigger phones because I knew I'd end up replacing the battery rather than buying a new phone.

Obviously that's bad for the phone makers, who would much rather ensure planned obsolescence makes you buy a whole new phone every 2 years. The likes of Apple were able to persuade enough consumers that 1mm thinner phones were more important than the ability to extend its life for £20, and so the norm became the one that favoured the manufacturers rather than the consumer.

I suspect we'll see the same with cars - there may be some attempts to have swappable batteries to start with, but in the long term people will prefer the greater space, better-aerodynamics-leading-to-more-range etc of built-in batteries.

I totally agree re journey mileage - I believe that some leased EVs come with an understanding that a few times a year one can 'borrow' an IC car for the odd long journey (holidays e.t.c) . That seems a good compromise.

That was how this Leaf lease worked that I keep mentioning - they never took advantage of that option as they had a IC car as well, but it seems a smart way for manufacturers to defuse range anxiety. And perhaps points the way to how cars-as-a-service might work, you could also have a van option for the one day a year you need to shift some furniture etc.

 

[Justin Dean]

Cost of evs has to come down before it is viable.

 

[Justin Dean]

https://news.sky.com/story/electric-cars-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-future-of-motoring-11757459

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

Where does electricity come from, need to look at the whole equation.

I agree. The emissions from electric cars are not zero, they are just moved from the car to the power stations.

 

[Justin Dean]

report says
manufacturing an average petrol car will involve emissions of around 5.6 tonnes of CO2, while for an average electric car that rises to 8.8 tonnes, according to estimates by the Ricardo consultancy.

However, it says over its whole lifecycle the electric car would still produce 20% less emissions which may be right but it is future predictive not fact, depends also if you like having the air conditioning on all the time and heated seats and the radio etc........I all for cars going fully electric but they have to become much cheaper up front, the saving is not constant for everyone, depends how many miles you do. like any car. It is not a simple calculation like some on this thread say. The economics need to improve before 2030. Insurance is also more expensive. There re just less repairers around but I am sure that will change. Personally i do not think we are at a tipping point yet but it is coming. One of my cars is due to be replaced in September and we are cindering renault zoe or something like that as everyday driver. The van i have will stay petrol an electric 2nd hand van is far too expensive presently and does make sense presently for it uses as it is for national tailgates and bbq competitions and trips fishing, often in France. I will wait to 2030 before sorting that out

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I agree. The emissions from electric cars are not zero, they are just moved from the car to the power stations.

Given that the EEA estimate 52,430 deaths per year in the UK from particulates, ozone and nitrogen dioxide and WHO estimate 7 million per year from all airborne pollution, then just moving pollution from where people live to power stations would be a worthy aim in itself.

But it's better than that, as electric motors are so much more efficient than other forms of propulsion (so far less energy is consumed in the first place, which is the best way to cut emissions) and "the power stations" are now around 40% renewable, 15-20% nuclear and the rest gas, which gives a far lower emissions mix than running lots of small fossil fuel engines.

 

[Justin Dean]

Accepted. I guess we will never know if these estimates are accurate until 2035. Manufacturing the car electric motors batteries all involves co2, it is a wide equation.

What about the mining of the minerals to make the batteries? That needs to change like so much in the world and that will drive cost up further. We shall see.

Economics needs to work to make it work too. Expect taxes too to replace petrol/diesel tax in the uk.

Presently even in the longer term depending on usage the equation does not work. I am trying to save costs and when I replace my car in September my car to electric I will not see savings for years and increase costs a lot in the immediate term....that is block to decision

 

[johncrobinson]

What about heating in the winter.???
Will not using electric heating hammer the batteries.??
With petrol/diesel its otherwise waste heat that's used.

Up here in the frozen wastes of northern Scotland most of my neighbours idle their cars for a good 30-45mins to warm up the car before driving off.

Asking out of curiosity as a non driver.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Will not using electric heating hammer the batteries.??

According to one article i read cold weather the heater can reduce the range by 41% which means that those who use them for long journeys every day would have to charge more often the majority of EV drivers who do smaller commuting journeys would still be able to get to work and back on a single charge so its not a major ball ache and as range is increasing the affect will become less.

As more affordable and longer-range electric cars hit the market, the long-predicted shift to battery-powered transportation seems poised to actually happen. But a serious challenge remains: battery-sucking cold weather.

New research from AAA reveals that when the mercury dips to 20 degrees Fahrenheit, the average driving range of an electric car decreases by 41 percent. When colder temperatures hit, EV owners have the same instinct as their internal combustion engine-driving brethren, which is to crank up the heat as high as it will go. This puts a serious strain on an EV’s battery, reducing the overall range and increasing the need to charge more often to minimize the chance of being stranded by a dead battery.

Up here in the frozen wastes of northern Scotland most of my neighbours idle their cars for a good 30-45mins to warm up the car before driving off.

The newer electric cars can be programmed to heat the cabin before moving off. This should really only be done whilst the car is still plugged in as obviously the heating will use battery power. If you are only using the car for a short trip then you will probably be OK, if it isn't plugged in, but you do have to use an electric car in a different way.