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Covid-19 the second wave.

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Dr. Dirk

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I've been following the discussion here for a while, haven't commented as I'm still weighing all the info. I would be interested to hear what folks make of this doctor's analysis of the situation (about 30 minutes long):

(Edit: he isn't a doctor, as was told to me, but a biochemical engineer who got into wholistic medicine after having liver problems)

 
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Chippy_Tea

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A boss at our firm got Covid and was off for weeks he still suffers symptoms but not as bad as the people in the BBC article below.


Coronavirus patient unable to work six months on -

A woman has said she is worried she will "never get back to my normal self" months after catching coronavirus.

Jade Townsend, 22, was active and sociable before spending just one night in hospital after contracting Covid-19.

But she said she can no longer work and suffers chronic fatigue, fevers, nausea and a fluctuating fast heart rate.

Researchers studying long-term effects of the virus said they hoped to prevent a "cycle of illness where the symptoms continue".

Many coronavirus patients have reported debilitating symptoms continuing months after falling ill, which can include breathlessness, chronic fatigue and brain fog.

Dr Rachael Evans, from the University of Leicester, has worked on a UK-wide investigation into the long-term effects of Covid-19 for patients admitted to hospital.

"I've been a qualified doctor in the NHS for 23 years and I've not seen anything like it in respiratory medicine," she said.

"At the moment it is just so unknown... we're still very much at the point where we're learning what the after-effects are."

Dr Evans said understanding "long Covid" should ease future strains on healthcare services and wider society.

"If people are left to deal with it themselves there can often become a real cycle of illness where the symptoms continue," she added.

Five weeks after catching the illness in mid-March, Ms Townsend, from Witney in Oxfordshire, was taken to hospital with a high fever and difficulties breathing.

Five months later, she has had to give up her job at a nursery and said she "can't imagine" resuming her social life.

"I'm now nearly needing more hours of sleep than time awake," said Ms Townsend.
"It worries me at 22 I'll be stuck with some of these symptoms and I won't ever be able to get back to my normal self."

Dr Evans's study aims to recruit 10,000 people to assess their physical function and mental health, also taking samples to analyse their genes and immune system.
 

simon12

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I've been following the discussion here for a while, haven't commented as I'm still weighing all the info. I would be interested to hear what folks make of this doctor's analysis of the situation (about 30 minutes long):
He has some good points but, he cherry pics data to much.
Where hes wrong:
Lockdowns do have an effect, if something spreads from person to person limiting person to person contact will reduce it. If lockdowns were needed everywhere is debatable but he doesn't mention anything about hospitals being overwhelmed in Italy or Spain.
In many cases he says there is no evidence X helps then claims it definitely doesn't when evidence may be inconclusive, so he may not be wrong but claims non evidence to make the reverse a fact.
Where I agree:
Sweden is looking more and more like it got its approach right and though the UK is far to different to have done the same Ireland and parts of the UK could have..
I was going to write more but need to get a few things done, thanks for sharing.
 

Chippy_Tea

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Circuit break.

You'll be sick of hearing that by the end of the day.

The death rate is doubling every seven days so circuit breaks are to be put in place.


BBC News.

New England-wide measures which could see hospitality businesses forced to shut are being considered by the UK government to try to slow a second surge of coronavirus cases.

A short period of national rules - a "circuit break" of a few weeks - could be announced in the next week, BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said.

Schools and most workplaces would be kept open during those weeks.

But no final decisions have yet been reached on the next course of action.

At a meeting on Wednesday night, the government's chief scientific adviser and medical officer predicted another serious outbreak of the disease.

They forecast that there would be a significant number of deaths by the end of October if there were no further interventions.

The possible measures being discussed include asking some hospitality businesses to close, or limiting the opening hours of some pubs and restaurants nationwide.

The virus is now understood to be doubling every seven to eight days, with more than 3,300 new cases reported on Thursday.
 

Bernie

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he doesn't mention anything about hospitals being overwhelmed in Italy or Spain.
In Italy, hospitals only were under pressure in a very limited geographic area. Not really a pandemic. In places further south eg Rome total deaths actually fell, although, the thesis that epidemics develop differently in warmer and cooler regions would explain the way it is spreading in Italy.


In many cases he says there is no evidence X helps then claims it definitely doesn't when evidence may be inconclusive, so he may not be wrong but claims non evidence to make the reverse a fact.
That is not a non sequitur. Do masks help? The only reason we adopted them was because this disease supposedly came from China and the Chinese have been going around in masks for decades because of pollution.

Sweden is looking more and more like it got its approach right and though the UK is far to different to have done the same Ireland and parts of the UK could have..
Not entirely. As a seasonal illness they should have protected the vulnerable but didn't.
 

MmmBeer

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I received a letter on Friday, inviting me to take part in a Covid antibody study, run by NHS & UCL. I had a bug last christmas, which just gave me a cough for a couple of weeks, but didn't feel like a normal cold. I doubt it could have been Covid, but would be interested to find out for sure.
I received my test kit earlier this week and conducted it that day. It consisted of a plastic block, where you put a drop of blood in one hole and a couple of drops of solvent in another. You wait 10 minutes for a line to change colour and observe whether any of two other lines appear, indicating the presence of the shortlived IgM antibodies, ot the longer lasting IgG ones. Mine came up as negative, I had to fill in an online survey, on health, lifestyle etc. and attach a photo of the test, about 15 minutes in total.
 

Cwrw666

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Me and the Mrs had to drive down to Haverfordwest on Tuesday for the drive through test. Day 3 today and still waiting for the results. Have to say I could have done without the 40 mile round trip - totally wiped me out.
Only got some of the symptoms but the Mrs is a care worker - started getting ill while she was doing an overnighter with a 95 year old...

Just got the results back. Both negative.
 
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Brianbrewed

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Looks like Dublin will be coming under restrictions from midnight tonight.
Cases are increasing at an alarming rate in the capital.

Most of the new cases are community based.
Our new gov communications are not nearly as smooth as the previous administration.
 

Chippy_Tea

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I don't understand the benefit of shutting pubs form 10pm to 5am i get that sober people are more likely to respect distance but all that will happen is people will start drinking earlier.

  • late night operating hours will be restricted, with leisure and entertainment venues including restaurants, pubs, and cinemas, required to close between 10pm to 5am
 

jjsh

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The curfew is one of the most stupid decisions ever. The whole evenings worth of customers will now be crammed into a shorter timescale meaning more crowded pubs, etc. Stupidity.

You have to remember that PHE is crammed full of temperance tossers, so the answer to everything will be some kind of restriction on alcohol.
 

obscure

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I don't understand the benefit of shutting pubs form 10pm to 5am i get that sober people are more likely to respect distance but all that will happen is people will start drinking earlier.

  • late night operating hours will be restricted, with leisure and entertainment venues including restaurants, pubs, and cinemas, required to close between 10pm to 5am
The only possible argument I can come up with is that as people become more intoxicated are less likely to observe social distancing but this seems a pretty weak argument.
 

Rodcx500z

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I have come to the conclusion that whatever they do this covid virus is not going away until everybody observes what is asked of them and that ain't going to happen any time soon, we as a family have manged so far and as far we know none of us have had it, so i will just carry on doing what i have been doing from the beginning, until they start to enforce these rules rigidly nothing will change
 

Rodcx500z

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The curfew is one of the most stupid decisions ever. The whole evenings worth of customers will now be crammed into a shorter timescale meaning more crowded pubs, etc. Stupidity.

You have to remember that PHE is crammed full of temperance tossers, so the answer to everything will be some kind of restriction on alcohol.
You have to remember that PHE is crammed full of temperance tossers, so the answer to everything will be some kind of restriction on alcohol
Jjsh i am building stocks up i reckon by the time i brew all my gain i have now i will have well over 500 pints:beer1:onwards and upwards
 

dad_of_jon

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I don't understand the benefit of shutting pubs form 10pm to 5am i get that sober people are more likely to respect distance but all that will happen is people will start drinking earlier.

  • late night operating hours will be restricted, with leisure and entertainment venues including restaurants, pubs, and cinemas, required to close between 10pm to 5am
If there was a study about the number of viral particles breathed in per hour which showed the longer you stay the more chance of infection (which is kinda obvious) however will less available time in a pub lead to more consumption in a shorter time and thus an increased risk from drunken lack of social distancing and more shouting spreading more particles? - Pubs may not necessarily be more crowded if people arrive earlier and thus leave earlier. Heck we've been to brewdog just after opening and no crowds, we left by 3pm and still no issues with numbers of drinkers.

The safer way i'd suggest could be to increase the opening hours but have a pub limit (or course) but also a maximum time and maximum drinks slot in the pub.
feel free to shoot this idea down, cos I'm at home drinking quite safely. In Gowerton this is preferable to the S-H1t establisments nearby and Swansea would mean taking a train. However if I lived in Leeds ( IMO beer lovers capital of UK - I'd be really depressed about pub restrictions)
 

dad_of_jon

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Jjsh i am building stocks up i reckon by the time i brew all my gain i have now i will have well over 500 pints:beer1:onwards and upwards
I have 295 bottles atm tho' mostly 330's with a few 500's so not quite 500 pints :hat:but I'm working upping my stock to 240 pints.

To quote scotty - It's the shed Jim, she canna take no more! ;)
 

obscure

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If there was a study about the number of viral particles breathed in per hour which showed the longer you stay the more chance of infection (which is kinda obvious) however will less available time in a pub lead to more consumption in a shorter time and thus an increased risk from drunken lack of social distancing and more shouting spreading more particles? - Pubs may not necessarily be more crowded if people arrive earlier and thus leave earlier. Heck we've been to brewdog just after opening and no crowds, we left by 3pm and still no issues with numbers of drinkers.

The safer way i'd suggest could be to increase the opening hours but have a pub limit (or course) but also a maximum time and maximum drinks slot in the pub.
feel free to shoot this idea down, cos I'm at home drinking quite safely. In Gowerton this is preferable to the S-H1t establisments nearby and Swansea would mean taking a train. However if I lived in Leeds ( IMO beer lovers capital of UK - I'd be really depressed about pub restrictions)
One good aspect of the lockdown has being the number of breweries now offering beer for home delivery. I have grabbed a half pint on my way back from work (on the couple of days a week I’ve being back in the office) but cannot see myself particularly wanting to go to the pub on a Friday night for a few pints. Unfortunately I suspect my view isn’t that unusual which means the pubs are going to continue to have a really tough time and I just hope most will survive to see the other side of this.
 

Brewnaldo

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I know politics are in the main to be kept out of this.... <Snip> by Admin.

Please post corvid related anti government posts in the "How have the government handled Covid" thread in the Bridge forum.
 
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foxbat

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I used statistics from the sources you mentioned and linked. But anyway that's me done on this topic, I'm of the opinion that it's not worth arguing with anyone who calls themselves a "truth seeker".
I'm showing my internet age, but *plonk* on that guy
 
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