Covid-19 the second wave.

[Cheshire Cat]

87 I think

 

[Chippy_Tea]

87 I think

I don't know how up to date 5 live drive is but they announced 77 a few minutes ago, as its the BBC its probably wrong.

 

[simon12]

The .Gov site says 87 UK 79 England

 

[Saisonator]

Average age for someone passing away from Covid is 82 years old.
7000 university students tested positive, not a single fatality and I doubt every one of them are slim, fit and healthy.

 

[crowcrow]

Average age for someone passing away from Covid is 82 years old.
7000 university students tested positive, not a single fatality and I doubt every one of them are slim, fit and healthy.

True true - most will be fine - but looking at some early research from my wifes long covid group, about 1 in 1000 (this estimate will be wrong!) will get 'long covid' - my wife is still very ill and unable to look after the kids or drive 6 months later. This time last year she was just turning 40, exercising 5 days a week and running loads of groups for school etc. Now she can only just about make it to the sofa some days.
That said she's improving from her worst about 2 months ago. This is someone that's never been hospitalised with covid, she was ill in her first two weeks, but not dangerously so.

So try not to look at covid as binary - dead/not dead. Remember there are loads of long lasting impacts for those with covid, a small minority, but in the scales we are talking about those are still going to be some big impacts for individuals, families and the country. Plenty of young people (20s) in her group and even the parents of some children still ill months later.

This all being so new it has been a long slog to get the NHS and the govt to recognise it, but they are now starting to. Expect to see far more in the press about it over the next year.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Average age for someone passing away from Covid is 82 years old.
7000 university students tested positive, not a single fatality and I doubt every one of them are slim, fit and healthy.

It takes 28 days on average for someone to die of Covid, of course you're not going to be seeing any deaths from universities yet. Also :

https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering...g-adults-hospitalized-covid-19-face-hard-roadThe researchers used a national all-payer hospital database to identify 3,222 nonpregnant adults aged 18–34 who were admitted to U.S. hospitals for COVID-19 between April 1 and June 30. Of those, 21% required intensive care, 10% required mechanical ventilation and 2.7% died.

“This in-hospital mortality rate is lower than that reported for older adults with COVID-19, but approximately double that of young adults with acute myocardial infarction,” (heart attack)...

a rise in the percentage of positive tests in [the 20-39] age group was followed by a rise in positive test results in adults 60 years and older in the ensuing days and weeks.

 

[crowcrow]

On covid I love the changing of scales that has gone on in the governments reporting:

Note the scale used in the colouring end of Sept (dark red was more than 45 cases per 100000)

Magically the scale changes, if they were using the old scale the country would be a sea of deep red...

 

[terrym]

On covid I love the changing of scales that has gone on in the governments reporting:
View attachment 33923
Note the scale used in the colouring end of Sept (dark red was more than 45 cases per 100000)

View attachment 33924
Magically the scale changes, if they were using the old scale the country would be a sea of deep red...

Which is why the scales were changed because otherwise the charts would have been meaningless.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

...

 

[crowcrow]

Which is why the scales were changed because otherwise the charts would have been meaningless.

Do you think the current scale gives a good indication of the risk relative to a week ago?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

People will not be surrendered to hardship, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has said, as the government prepares to bring in new restrictions in England to slow the spread of Covid.
Labour mayor Mr Burnham said the chancellor's pledge to pay two-thirds of workers' wages if restrictions force UK firms to close was "insufficient".
The government is planning to bring in a three-tier local lockdown system.
It could mean tougher rules in parts of northern England and the Midlands.
Liverpool, where there are currently 600 cases per 100,000 people, is expected to be placed under the most severe set of restrictions, with all the city's pubs forced to close.
In a joint press conference with other mayors from northern England, Mr Burnham said negotiations about the lockdown in the North of England were ongoing but he was told by a "senior figure in Number 10" that the proposed financial help was "non-negotiable".
"I'm angry actually about being told the effect on people's lives is non-negotiable," he said.

He added that the chancellor's plans would hit the lowest paid - those on minimum or living wages. "These people can't choose to pay two-thirds of their rent or two-thirds of their bills," he said.
He also suggested the timing of the proposals could leave people without any financial support for weeks, with some first payments only due in December.
"That would leave people with no money for a period of six weeks and could push them into debt and severe hardship.
"To accept the chancellor's package would be to surrender our residents to hardship and our businesses to failure or collapse - and we are not prepared to do that," he said.

Full article - Coronavirus: We won't surrender North to hardship, mayor vows

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Masks don't offer 100% protection.

Tests do not catch every positive.

But it doesn't matter.

As long as you combine several "leaky" defences then they can catch enough virus that prevalence drops to levels where the economy can stay open.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It would appear some still don't get what keeping your distance is all about.

Watch the video - Fans watch penalty through pub window after closing

Covid: Drinkers in Scotland watch penalties outside pub after it closes

Scotland contested their first penalty shootout on Thursday, but coronavirus restrictions meant some revellers were forced to watch through a bar window.
The Scottish national team beat Israel 5-3 on penalties putting them one game away from their first major final since 1998.
Fans watched through a bar window after being forced to leave the pub at 10pm.
New restrictions, which came into force on Friday, have now forced venues in Scotland to stop serving alcohol after 6pm.

 

[Saisonator]

It takes 28 days on average for someone to die of Covid, of course you're not going to be seeing any deaths from universities yet.
I read less than 10 were hospitalised
Also :
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering...g-adults-hospitalized-covid-19-face-hard-roadThe researchers used a national all-payer hospital database to identify 3,222 nonpregnant adults aged 18–34 who were admitted to U.S. hospitals for COVID-19 between April 1 and June 30. Of those, 21% required intensive care, 10% required mechanical ventilation and 2.7% died.

“This in-hospital mortality rate is lower than that reported for older adults with COVID-19, but approximately double that of young adults with acute myocardial infarction,” (heart attack)...

a rise in the percentage of positive tests in [the 20-39] age group was followed by a rise in positive test results in adults 60 years and older in the ensuing days and weeks.

How many of those people were obese or had other conditions that made them vulnerable, a lot of very fat people in the US.
If they were vulnerable they should be isolated. Also from how many infections were there in total, for there to be 3,222 hospitalisations?

Which gamble are you in favour of?
The present restrictions and lockdowns, which is wrecking the economy and leading to deaths from untreated patients with other illnesses? Basically putting all your eggs in one basket and waiting for a vaccine that may never come into fruition?
The alternative which is shielding all vulnerable people and exposing the less vulnerable people to the virus and gain herd immunity. Which may lead to more deaths short term from Covid but will damage the economy less long term and reduce deaths from the effects of poverty.

We need to also think about the poverty the wrecked economy will lead to. We could see a lot of desperate people who could turn to criminality and also civil unrest like we are seeing in the US.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

BBC News.
6 minutes ago -


Covid in Wales: How many cases and deaths have there been?
Two more people have died with coronavirus and 467 have tested positive, according to the latest figures from Public Health Wales (PHW).
It said there had been a total of 1,669 deaths and 30,121 people have tested positive since the pandemic began.
The total number of people who have been tested in Wales is 602,421, with 572,300 testing negative.
Cardiff has the highest number of daily reported cases at 46, with 42 in Bridgend and 36 in Rhondda Cynon Taf.
There were also 33 new cases in Flintshire, 32 in Swansea, 29 in Wrexham and 28 in Neath Port Talbot
A total of 9,347 daily tests were carried out on behalf of PHW on Saturday.

• Rise in Covid-19 patients in intensive care
• What do the stats tell us in Wales?
• How has the coronavirus wave looked across Wales?

Seventeen areas in Wales have seen local lockdown restrictions put in place affecting more than two million people.
Merthyr Tydfil has the highest case rate in Wales over the past week with 220.5 cases per 100,000 people, followed by Flintshire with 164 cases per 100,000 people, 163.7 per 100,000 in Rhondda Cynon Taf and 162 per 100,000 in Wrexham.
PHW's figures mostly involve hospital deaths and only include cases when the virus has been confirmed in a laboratory test.
The figures do not include deaths of residents from Powys in hospitals in England, although these are included in Office for National Statistics data.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

How many of those people were obese or had other conditions that made them vulnerable, a lot of very fat people in the US.

There's lots of fat people in the UK as well. Are you trying to say that we model things based on a hypothetical population that is all a size 8, or do we model on the basis of the population as it really is?

If they were vulnerable they should be isolated. ....leading to deaths from untreated patients with other illnesses?

Define what you mean by "vulnerable people" - by the sound of it you would include 18-34's with a bit of a beer belly?

The alternative which is shielding all vulnerable people and exposing the less vulnerable people to the virus and gain herd immunity.

How do you propose "shielding" them so that they never come in contact with a virus that is raging through the rest of the population - and are they not the exact same population that are more vulnerable to "other illnesses", how will you treat them?

waiting for a vaccine that may never come into fruition?

Right now the odds seem pretty good on that - obviously we don't know for certain, but the main uncertainty is the nature of immunity to SARS2 in general - and your strategy is equally reliant on that particular uncertainty. If there's no lasting immunity to SARS2, then your strategy will have killed millions of people for nothing.

We need to also think about the poverty the wrecked economy will lead to.

Exactly - and that's why poor countries who can least afford to wreck their economy, have been taking the cheap option of lockdowns etc. And most of them have been doing much better than the UK. Even countries that have economies more like the UK's have found that hitting it hard and fast means that they can get back to relative normality already - see something like Taiwan as an example. The virus hits the economy far more than the lockdowns, you can't get a functioning economy back without controlling the virus.

Ultimately it comes down to maths - this chart considers the case where we're at 400 cases per 100,000 in a week or two's time. If you take measures to get R down to 0.7, then you'll be down to 50 cases/100k within 3 weeks or so, and down to negligible levels within 6-8 weeks.

If you do a half-hearted lockdown that only reduces R to 0.9, then you don't reach 50 cases/100k for two months, and it takes 6+ months to disappear.

Dithering and half-arsedness cost you as much as a tighter lockdown, and prevent one getting on with one's life. But that's not easy for people-pleaser politicians - see how Jenrick's Newark constituency has 182 cases/100k and Johnson's Hillingdon has 81 cases/100k and are not in lockdown, whereas Bolton and Bury went into local lockdown when they had only 30 cases/100k.

 

[Rodcx500z]

Well check this out Impromptu game of cricket breaks out on Peckham street after 10pm curfew the good people of Peckham playing cricket after 10pm closing time

 

[marshbrewer]

If there's no lasting immunity to SARS2, then your strategy will have killed millions of people for nothing.

If there is no lasting immunity, then we need to understand that we will just have to live with the virus and it's consequences, as, by definition, there will be no magic bullet of a vacation. The purpose of a vacation to provide immunity.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

BCG: Can a vaccine from 1921 save lives from Covid-19?

Full article - BCG: Can a vaccine from 1921 save lives from Covid-19?

But this process also causes wide-spread changes in the immune system. This seems to heighten the response to other infections and scientists hope it may even give our bodies an advantage against coronavirus.

• Previous clinical trials have shown the BCG jab reduced deaths by 38% in newborns in Guinea-Bissau, mostly by reducing cases of pneumonia and sepsis.
• Studies in South Africa linked the vaccine to a 73% reduction in infections in the nose, throat and lungs; experiments in the Netherlands showed BCG reduced the amount of yellow fever virus in the body.

"This could be of major importance globally," Prof John Campbell, of the University of Exeter Medical School, told the BBC.
"Whilst we don't think it [the protection] will be specific to Covid, it has the potential to buy several years of time for the Covid vaccines to come through and perhaps other treatments to be developed."
The UK trial is part of the international Brace-study, which is also taking place in Australia, the Netherlands, Spain and Brazil, recruiting 10,000 people in total.
It will focus on health and care workers, as they are more likely to be exposed to coronavirus, so researchers will know more quickly if the vaccine is effective.

Sam Hilton, a GP from Exeter, is taking part in the trials since, as a doctor, he is at higher risk of catching Covid.
"There's quite a good theory BCG might make you less likely to get unwell when you get Covid," he told the BBC.
"So I see it as a potential for me to get protected a bit, which means I'm more likely to come to work this winter."
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organization, is one of the authors of a Lancet article saying the BCG vaccine has the potential to "bridge the gap before a disease-specific vaccine is developed".
"This would be an important tool in the response to Covid-19 and future pandemics," the article states.

 

[The-Engineer-That-Brews]

I decided a while back to largely ignore the contents of the daily news on this depressing topic as (a) there isn't a lot I could do about it, and (b) I don't really need to know precisely how many people have succumbed to the virus in various parts of the world/country. Nonetheless I do choose to abide by the rules/guidelines, regardless of whether I see other people doing the same, because I want to help maintain the awareness that there are some people who are rightly or wrongly terrified of contracting the virus and they deserve to feel like the rest of us care enough to help protect them.