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Covid-19 the second wave.

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Chippy_Tea

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The next few weeks will be "nail-bitingly difficult" for the NHS, hospital bosses have warned.

Staff absences and the new Covid variant are creating a "challenging situation", Saffron Cordery, of NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts in England, said.

Doctors are urging the public to "take it seriously and follow the rules" to protect the health service.

On Thursday, the UK reported 55,892 daily Covid cases, the highest to date.

Meanwhile, new analysis by Imperial College London has confirmed the new variant of coronavirus has a much quicker rate of transmission than the original strain.

And an analysis of NHS England data from 23 hospital trusts by the Health Service Journal shows that Covid-19 is putting intense pressure on adult acute care and general beds, as well as those in intensive care.

It found that more than a third of these beds were occupied by patients with Covid-19 on Tuesday, and in three trusts - North Middlesex in London, and Medway and Dartford and Gravesham in Kent - the figure was more than half.

Based on the recent rise in numbers, the analysis suggests that all acute and general beds might soon be filled with Covid-19 patients.


Speaking on BBC One's Breakfast, Ms Cordery said the surging transmission and death rates were "incredibly hard to deal with".

"When we are seeing major London trusts saying they are under pressure, that's when we know we're in a very challenging space," she said.

A leading intensive care doctor has urged people to follow restrictions until the vaccination programme is fully rolled out.

Prof Anthony Gordon, of Imperial College, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "There is light at the end of the tunnel so I would urge people to hold on for these few more months while the vaccination programme makes that difference and then we can truly get back to normal.

"But we can't overrun the health service because this will just lead to thousands more deaths."

More than three-quarters of England is currently under the strictest tier four - "stay at home" - coronavirus measures, and other parts of the country have joined higher tiers.
Mainland Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are under lockdown.

Full article - Covid: 'Nail-biting' weeks ahead for NHS, hospitals in England warn - BBC News


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simon12

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I think I have found some good data on hospital capacity. Does anyone know is Critical care the same as ICU? I added the totals + free capacity columns both % & nos and hid alot of the data to fit on 1 screen. 27/12 was the most recent data.

 

simon12

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Other Data General and acute bed capacity seems to have dropped 10,000 since September and is at around 90% capacity depending on where you are. Its alot of spreadsheets copy and pasted together.
 

Cheshire Cat

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Boris tells parents to send their children to school as they're perfectly safe. My grandson caught Covid at school off another child how's that safe.
 

JockyBrewer

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They're just doing their sums, and factoring in issues such as the current rate of transmission. It's inferred that the single dose is over 52% efficient (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577). As you say, so more people have some protection.
Higher than that even. When you strip out the people that got Covid-19 within 2-3 weeks of the first dose (the time in which it takes an immune response to build), the single dose of the BioNTechPfizer vaccine was over 90% effective, and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was over 70%.

The second dose in both cases is expected to extend coverage more than improve the efficacy. Doing the numbers it's more beneficial overall to get the first dose to twice as many vulnerable people and strategic key workers with a single dose followed by a delayed second dose after 3 months than it is to do the second dose after 3 weeks.

Here's the full paper on this, it's not that long and the interesting stuff is up front: https://www.cas.mhra.gov.uk/ViewandAcknowledgment/ViewAttachment.aspx?Attachment_id=103741
 

Chippy_Tea

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Boris tells parents to send their children to school as they're perfectly safe. My grandson caught Covid at school off another child how's that safe.
We are going over the same ground again as in all the other locked threads, if the government shut all the schools who is going to look after the kids i doubt many families have a parent who doesn't work so who is going to pay their wages while they are not at work and how long do you close the schools for?

I believe they are going to introduce closures in badly effected areas and only allow kids who cannot stay off to attend i think this should have the desired effect.
 

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If we follow the economic argument then shops, leisure centre and pubs would stay open. The issue in schools is the transmission of the virus to staff there and to the parents.
 

Chippy_Tea

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If we follow the economic argument then shops, leisure centre and pubs would stay open. The issue in schools is the transmission of the virus to staff there and to the parents.
I see no reason for closing shops If people observed the distance rules and wear face coverings why is it OK to go to a shop selling essentials but not to one that doesn't.

You cannot wear a face covering in a pub or leisure centre so i have no problem with that rule staying.
 

Chippy_Tea

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Commenting on reports on mixing vaccines, Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisations at PHE, said: “We do not recommend mixing the COVID-19 vaccines – if your first dose is the Pfizer vaccine you should not be given the AstraZeneca vaccine for your second dose and vice versa.”

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Leon103

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Tell the teachers union that teachers won't get paid if they are not in work. That will soon shut them up.

I can only go from the data in my county, and school transmissions have been very low. Care homes have been high, shortly followed by the pubs.
 

531Man

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I think I have found some good data on hospital capacity. Does anyone know is Critical care the same as ICU?
QUOTE]
In a word, yes.
Intensive care, Critical care, same level of care units known by different names.
Just local Hospital historical names. Also can be known as Intensive Therapy Unit, ITU.
Not sure about this bit, but change in name from Critical to Intensive may have come in due to possible confusion with arise of Coronary Care Units. Both have CCU as abbreviations but are a different sort of care.
Some hospitals also have High Dependacy Units, which are very close in level of care to ICU, and can carry out the same functions when necessary.
 

Covrich

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I know where my soon to be ex wife works and managed is MAU and CCU

Not trying to get any people who study statistics upset but just relaying what she tells me and she said its really quiet at the minute relative to normal years.

One thing she ddi say was during lockdown 1 in April one of the frustrations was telling staff to shield then to call them back in and then to shield again and a LOT of staff where calling in sick staying off and shileding. Her hope is that vaccinations of staff shielding will help staffing levels as thats the biggest headache she faces when doing off duty rota
 

Oneflewover

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We are going over the same ground again as in all the other locked threads, if the government shut all the schools who is going to look after the kids i doubt many families have a parent who doesn't work so who is going to pay their wages while they are not at work and how long do you close the schools for?

I believe they are going to introduce closures in badly effected areas and only allow kids who cannot stay off to attend i think this should have the desired effect.
I agree with you, but the PM should not say that schools are 'safe'. They patently aren't. They may well be 'safe enough', but heads need to be able to comment on that on a school by school basis
 

Markk

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I agree with you, but the PM should not say that schools are 'safe'. They patently aren't. They may well be 'safe enough', but heads need to be able to comment on that on a school by school basis
30 people from 30 different households in one room, safe?
 

Markk

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Just announced Scotland are to go into full lock down from midnight tonight until February at least.
 
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