Covid-19 the second wave.

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Chippy_Tea

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This preprint is one of the first to look at long COVID among those who had COVID badly enough the first time to end up in hospital in England, a lot are ending back in hospital and a good chunk are dying - and relatively more of them are under 70 :
"Of 47,780 individuals in hospital with COVID-19 over the study period, 29.4% were re-admitted and 12.3% died following discharge"
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MACE is heart attacks, CKD is kidneys, CLD is liver disease.
Also has some stats on COVID in England to the end of August :
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The number that stands out for me is the 37% of people who didn't go to intensive care but "not discharged alive", compared to 47% of those in intensive care. Also a bit worrying that the NHS doesn't know either the age or sex of 1160 patients...
 

Justin Dean

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Incubation period before feeling
You’re being obtuse. like I said- personal situations vary, kids going to school is one of them.

There are the main symptoms listed on the NHS and .gov websites. If you have one, or all, of these - you stay in your house as per isolation rules and with the caveats I mentioned. For the people who have been furloughed/working from home/unemployed/unemployable with no where else to go, why use up resources when you cant go anywhere anyway?! Spread it to who?

if you are genuinely feeling ‘that rough’ (and it’s not down to consumption of a few too many Pints of a super strength brew) why not stay and home and ask your neighbour/mate/family to nip to Tescos for you?! If you’re not displaying any of the advised symptoms the Government advice is not to get tested. They have assessed the risk.

The ‘spread it to all and sundry’ is part of the fear message that has been created and constantly re-iterated to us. Do you honestly think that if you follow the guidelines and do the face, space and washing your hands the risk is that high? The evidence says otherwise - every supermarket would be short staffed, every distribution centre closed and every other area where people have to congregate for the ‘right’ reasons would be flooded. But they aren’t.

Virus incubation period, is that not a factor? One has the infection and does not know straight away so goes out and spreads it to some else so forth and so on?
 

Chippy_Tea

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Covid: Positive antibody tests doubled since autumn

About one in 10 people across the UK tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies in December, roughly double the October figure, data has shown.

Estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggest between 8% of people in Northern Ireland and 12% of people in England showed signs of past Covid infection.

In October, antibody positivity ranged from 2% to 7% around the UK.

And 6,586 Covid deaths were registered in the UK in the week to 8 January.

That brings the total registered so far close to 96,000.

Nearly a quarter of deaths were people living in care homes - a disproportionate impact on a group of people which accounts for less than 1% of the population.

Back in July, though, care home residents accounted for 40% of deaths.

The ONS regularly tests a representative sample of the population, both for current infection and for antibodies indicating a past infection.

People taking part in the survey are tested whether or not they have had symptoms.

This is used to estimate how common both the virus and antibodies are in the population as a whole.

Antibodies are proteins in the blood which fight off specific infections.

They are developed if somebody catches an infection and their body fights it off, or if they have been vaccinated.

Yorkshire and the Humber topped the chart with 17% of people having positive antibodies, followed by London.

Prof Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick Medical School, said: "This study shows that infection with the Sars-Cov-2 virus is much more widespread in the UK than previously realised, with around 1 in 10 people estimated to have been infected by December 2020.

"The implications are that infection rates increased significantly between November and December."

But Scotland had a considerably smaller growth in antibodies than the rest of the UK, rising from 7% to 9% of the population.
In December:
  • One in eight (12%) people in England had antibodies, up from 7%
  • One in 10 (10%) people in Wales had antibodies, up from 4%
  • One in 11 (9%) people in Scotland had antibodies, up from 7%
  • One in 13 (8%) people in Northern Ireland had antibodies, up from 2%

The fact that more people show signs of having at least some protection against Covid-19 is consistent with the dramatic rise in infections during that period.
But we know that antibodies from natural infection can fade.

In England, the ONS said, positive antibody tests equated to 5.4 million people aged over 16 having signs of past infection.

That does not tell you the total number of people infected, however, but acts as a snapshot in time.

In London, about 16% of people had antibodies in December, up from 11% in October. But at the last peak in May, an estimated 15% of the population had antibodies. This proportion fell, as detectable antibodies recede with time.

Exactly what this means for someone's likelihood to become infected again, however, is not fully known.

It also remains to be seen how long vaccines will protect people for, before they need a booster jab.

But Public Health England data suggests natural immunity provides at least five months' protection on average, and vaccines often give better protection than natural immunity.

More than 4 million people in the UK have been given their first dose of the vaccine.

Prof Janet Lord, director of the Institute of Inflammation and Ageing at the University of Birmingham, urged caution among those who have already been vaccinated.

Asked whether people who have received the jab can hug their children, she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I would certainly advise not to do that at the moment because, as you probably know, with the vaccines they take several weeks before they are maximally effective.

"It's really important that people stay on their guard even if they've had that first vaccination."
 

Chippy_Tea

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A further 1,610 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the biggest figure reported in a single day since the pandemic began.

It means the total number of deaths by that measure is now above 90,000.

A total of 4,266,577 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine, according to the latest government figures.

Another 33,355 positive Covid cases have been recorded - less than half the peak figure of 68,053 on 8 January.

It is the lowest number of daily cases seen since 27 December - before the start of England's third nationwide lockdown.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England, said: "Whilst there are some early signs that show our sacrifices are working, we must continue to strictly abide by the measures in place."

She said reducing contact with others and staying at home will lead to "a fall in the number of infections over time".

The figures come as new estimates from the Office for National Statistics show about one in 10 people across the UK tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies in December - roughly double the October figure.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said he is self-isolating after being alerted by the UK's NHS Covid-19 app.

He said self-isolation was "perhaps the most important part of all the social distancing" and urged others to do the same if contacted.

The previous highest number of daily deaths was last Wednesday, when 1,564 deaths were recorded.

In total, 91,470 people have died within 28 days of testing positive, but there are other ways of measuring the total number of deaths.

When all deaths where coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate are counted, plus deaths known to have occurred more recently, the number of deaths involving Covid in the UK is more than 100,000.

Another method is to count excess deaths - all deaths over and above the usual number at the time of year.
 
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A further 1,610 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the biggest figure reported in a single day since the pandemic began.

It means the total number of deaths by that measure is now above 90,000.

A total of 4,266,577 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine, according to the latest government figures.

Another 33,355 positive Covid cases have been recorded - less than half the peak figure of 68,053 on 8 January.

It is the lowest number of daily cases seen since 27 December - before the start of England's third nationwide lockdown.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England, said: "Whilst there are some early signs that show our sacrifices are working, we must continue to strictly abide by the measures in place."

She said reducing contact with others and staying at home will lead to "a fall in the number of infections over time".

The figures come as new estimates from the Office for National Statistics show about one in 10 people across the UK tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies in December - roughly double the October figure.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said he is self-isolating after being alerted by the UK's NHS Covid-19 app.

He said self-isolation was "perhaps the most important part of all the social distancing" and urged others to do the same if contacted.

The previous highest number of daily deaths was last Wednesday, when 1,564 deaths were recorded.

In total, 91,470 people have died within 28 days of testing positive, but there are other ways of measuring the total number of deaths.

When all deaths where coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate are counted, plus deaths known to have occurred more recently, the number of deaths involving Covid in the UK is more than 100,000.

Another method is to count excess deaths - all deaths over and above the usual number at the time of year.
I don't look at uk wide news that often. What is the state of play with the virus in England. Rates still increasing? Here in wales numbers are going down but daily figures are up and down a little. We are shockingly **** at delivering the vaccine though.
 

Chippy_Tea

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A further 1,820 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the most reported in a single day since the pandemic began.

It means the total number of deaths by that measure is now 93,290.

There were also a further 38,905 cases, with 3,887 more patients admitted into hospital.

Some 4,609,740 people have now received the first dose of a vaccine - a rise of 343,163 from yesterday - according to the latest government figures.

Just under half of the newly reported deaths reported occurred on Tuesday, while a further quarter took place on Monday or Sunday.

Deaths reported in Wednesday's figures are likely to reflect infections that happened around Christmas time.

It means it is likely that daily deaths will continue to rise for some time yet, as cases were still increasing after Christmas.

The previous highest number of daily deaths was the 1,610 reported on Tuesday.

A total of 3,505,754 have now tested positive for coronavirus in the UK.

The most vulnerable are being prioritised for the vaccine in the first phase of the rollout.

But the committee advising the government on vaccines said it would consider factors such as exposure risk and occupation in the rollout's next phase.

And Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he wanted front-line workers to be vaccinated "as soon as possible".
 
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Bearing in mind that it takes an average of 27 days to die from Covid, the people dying today and yesterday are the ones who got it the weekend before Christmas. Next week's figures will be horrendous as it's the Christmas infections, but hopefully it will ease off after that.
 

marshbrewer

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Next week's figures will be horrendous as it's the Christmas infections, but hopefully it will ease off after that.
I agree with you up to a point, but not about 'Christmas infections', as the whole country celebrated Christmas, but not all areas have seen these figures. I would argue it's more to do with the new variant. But, yes, if you look at new cases (which thankfully appear to have peaked) the next two weeks will be grim.
 

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It is "too early" to say whether England's Covid restrictions will be able to end in the spring, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.

Once the four priority groups have been vaccinated, by mid-February, "we'll look then at how we're doing," he said.

Nearly two million people in the UK have had their first dose of vaccine the past week, government figures show.

Scientist Marc Baguelin, who advises the government, has said restaurants and bars should not reopen before May.

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has said he "certainly hopes" schools in England can fully reopen before Easter, while Downing Street refused to be drawn on whether this would happen by then.

The UK recorded another all-time high of daily coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, with 1,820 people reported to have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

Home Secretary Priti Patel is due to lead a Downing Street briefing at about 17:00 GMT.

Speaking after a study showed infections in the community increased at the start of the latest lockdown in England, Mr Johnson said it was "absolutely crucial" that people observed the restrictions.

Referring to figures from the Imperial College London survey, he said they showed the new variant of the virus was "not more deadly but it is much more contagious and the numbers are very great".

Dr Baguelin, from Imperial College, who sits on a sub-group of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said the premature opening of the hospitality sector would lead to a "bump" in Covid-19 cases.

He told BBC Radio 4's World at One programme even a partial reopening would generate "an increase in the R number". An R number above one means the epidemic is growing.

"Something of this scale, if it was to happen earlier than May, would generate a bump in transmission, which is already really bad," he said.

"So you have a lot of pressure on hospitals, you will have another wave of some extent. At best you will keep on having very, very unsustainable level of pressure on the NHS."

NHS England figures show one in 10 major hospital trusts had no spare adult critical care beds last week.

Full article - Covid: 'Too early' to say if lockdown will end in spring - Boris Johnson
 

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Coronavirus lockdown restrictions in Northern Ireland will be extended until 5 March, BBC News NI understands.
The executive backed the proposal from Health Minister Robin Swann at its meeting on Thursday.
Another review of the measures will take place on 18 February.
But ministers were also told that restrictions may have to remain in place until after the Easter holidays in order to continue pushing down the rate of transmission.
Schools are closed to most pupils until after half-term in February but it is understood a paper on the reopening date for schools will be brought to next week's executive meeting.
The first and deputy first ministers are expected to confirm the decision at a press conference at about 16:15 GMT.
Northern Ireland entered a six-week lockdown on 26 December, with ministers holding an initial review on 21 January.
It was in response to a spike in the number of cases of coronavirus, which followed a relaxation of some rules in the run-up to Christmas.
Ministers have agreed to keep the current restrictions in place until March but Mr Swann said it was "possible" they could be needed until Easter, which this year falls in the first week of April.
It is understood this plan is being discussed across the four nations but ministers will have to consider that in the review next month.
Ministers were also warned that restrictions will be eased on a step-by-step basis, in line with reducing pressures on the health service and ensuring the vaccination programme is "well advanced" before any relaxations are agreed.
 

Chippy_Tea

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Glastonbury Festival has been cancelled for a second year running due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The news was announced on Thursday on the Worthy Farm event's Twitter page.
"With great regret, we must announce that this year's Glastonbury Festival will not take place," said festival organisers Michael and Emily Eavis.
"And that this will be another enforced fallow year for us. Tickets for this year will roll over to next year. Michael & Emily."

'Move heaven and earth'

The full statement on the festival website read: "In spite of our efforts to move heaven and earth, it has become clear that we simply will not be able to make the Festival happen this year. We are so sorry to let you all down."
It confirmed that as with last year, anyone with a ticket will now be offered the opportunity to roll their £50 deposit over to next year, when the festival will hopefully resume.
"We are very appreciative of the faith and trust placed in us by those of you with deposits, and we are very confident we can deliver something really special for us all in 2022!"
Julian Knight MP, chair of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport committee, said news of this year's cancellation was "devastating".
"We have repeatedly called for ministers to act to protect our world-renowned festivals like this one with a government-backed insurance scheme. Our plea fell on deaf ears and now the chickens have come home to roost," he said.

"The jewel in the crown will be absent but surely the government cannot ignore the message any longer - it must act now to save this vibrant and vital festivals sector."
The government has been asked for a response to this statement.
On 5 January the government responded to a report by UK Music called Let the Music Play: Save Our Summer 2021, which outlined a range of measures that could help the industry get back up and running.
The government said: "We know these are challenging times for the live events sector and are working flat out to support it.
"Our £1.57bn Culture Recovery Fund has already seen more than £1bn offered to arts, heritage and performance organisations to support them through the impact of the pandemic, protecting tens of thousands of creative jobs across the UK, including festivals such as Deer Shed Festival, End of the Road and Nozstock."
Last year's 50th anniversary Glastonbury was meant to be headlined by Sir Paul McCartney, Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar, but it was cancelled during the initial national lockdown in March 2020.

Last month, organiser Emily Eavis told the BBC she hoped this year's festival could go ahead, despite the "huge uncertainty" surrounding live music in the pandemic.
"We're doing everything we can on our end to plan and prepare," she told the BBC, "but I think we're still quite a long way from being able to say we're confident 2021 will go ahead."
Eavis said Glastonbury lost "millions" in 2020. Her father, Michael, has previously warned the festival "would seriously go bankrupt" if they had to cancel again next year.
But that scenario is unlikely "as long as we can make a firm call either way in advance", Eavis clarified to the BBC.

'Superspreader'

No exact festival details had been announced for 2021. But just before Christmas, Sir Paul McCartney told the BBC the event was not in his calendar, as it would be a "superspreader".
At the start of January, MPs were told that some of the UK's biggest music festivals could be called off by the end of this month.
Events are "rapidly approaching the determination point", after which they'll have to pull the plug, said the Association of Independent Festivals.
Organisers will be in "absolutely dire straits" financially if the season is cancelled, added Anna Wade, of Winchester's Boomtown Fair.
They were speaking to MPs examining the plight of music festivals in the UK.
 

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One worker at a dairy has died after contracting coronavirus and 95 others are self-isolating.

Muller Milk & Ingredients said 47 staff members who work at the company's dairy near Bridgwater, Somerset, have tested positive for Covid-19.
It said it was now testing all 300 workers at its site in North Petherton.
A spokesman for the firm said the safety of its products had not been affected by the outbreak at its factory.
It was working with Public Health England and the council to help with mass testing, he added.
The employee was taken to hospital but died. The firm said its thoughts were with the worker's family and friends.
Production has since been reduced at the site.

Safety 'first'

The spokesman added: "It is important to stress that fresh milk processing is highly automated ensuring no risk to products, with our Bridgwater facility one of the most modern dairies in the UK.
"As we have done throughout the pandemic, we are placing the safety of our employees first and following best practice as set down by the Health and Safety Executive.
"Standard measures in place include the use of facemasks, distancing, enhanced deep cleaning and hygiene, underpinned by a programme of e-learning, information and audits to ensure compliance and awareness of the measures."
Somerset County Council said it was working closely with Public Health England and the factory and that further testing was being done throughout Thursday.
"The [council's] rapid outbreak testing team is carrying out further workforce testing today, for workers who were not present on Monday shifts.
"The testing on Monday identified a number of staff who were positive but asymptomatic, who are now isolating," a spokesman said.
 

Chippy_Tea

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Coronavirus: UK R number 'between 0.8 and 1'

The UK's Covid epidemic appears to be shrinking for the first time since early December.

The government's scientific advisors have estimated the virus is reproducing at a rate of between 0.8 and 1.
Anything below one means infections are falling.
Meanwhile Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures also suggest cases are decreasing slightly or levelling off across Britain.
In a statement, the Department of Health and Social Care said: "There is variation across the country with R estimated to be below one in areas that have been under tighter restrictions for longest.
"Cases remain dangerously high and...it is essential that everyone continues to stay at home, whether they have had the vaccine or not."
Infections are falling more slowly than they did during the first lockdown - by somewhere around a quarter every fortnight compared with a halving back in April.
A further 40,261 cases, and 1,401 deaths were recorded on Friday in the UK.


Prof David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge said cases were "getting down to nearly half of where we were three weeks ago, which is enormously hopeful".
But he explained the change in infections was taking a while to feed through to a fall in new hospital admissions, and couldn't yet be seen in the total number of hospital patients or deaths.
"We probably won't see that until the end of the month," he said.
By next month, though, "we will start seeing the benefits of the vaccine".
More than five million people had been given a first dose of the vaccine by 21 January, and about half a million had received their second dose.

Full article - Coronavirus: UK R number 'between 0.8 and 1'
 

Chippy_Tea

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Latest coronavirus news from BBC.



Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.


However, there remains huge uncertainty around the numbers - and vaccines are still expected to work.
The data comes from mathematicians comparing death rates in people infected with either the new or the old versions of the virus.
The new more infectious variant has already spread widely across the UK.
Mr Johnson told a Downing Street briefing: "In addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant - the variant that was first identified in London and the south east - may be associated with a higher degree of mortality.
"It's largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure."
Public Health England, Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the University of Exeter have each been trying to assess how deadly the new variant is.
Their evidence has been assessed by scientists on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag).
The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, described the data so far as "not yet strong".
He said: "I want to stress that there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility."

Previous work suggests the new variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster than others, and there are hints it is about 30% more deadly.
For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 of them might be expected to die. But this rises to about 13 with the new variant.
This difference is found when looking at everyone testing positive for Covid, but analysing only hospital data has found no increase in the death rate. Hospital care has improved over the course of the pandemic as doctors get better at treating the disease.
The new variant was first detected in Kent in September. It is now the most common form of the virus in England and Northern Ireland, and has spread to more than 50 other countries.
The Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine are both expected to work against the variant that emerged in the UK.
However, Sir Patrick said there was more concern about two other variants that had emerged in South Africa and Brazil.
He said: "They have certain features which means they might be less susceptible to vaccines.
"They are definitely of more concern than the one in the UK at the moment and we need to keep looking at it and studying this very carefully."
The prime minister said the government was prepared to take further action to protect the country's borders to prevent new variants from entering.
"I really don't rule it out, we may need to take further measures still," he said.
Last week the government extended a travel ban to South America, Portugal and many African countries amid concerns about new variants, while all international travellers must now test negative ahead of departure to the UK and go into quarantine on arrival.
 

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