Covid the jab and the final stage.

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I read that Germany will let twice vaccinated citizens carry on as normal during any further waves... Non vaccinated will be locked up...how they police that God knows!
 
As far as I’m aware the Indian variant still responds to the vaccine, and the highest risk members of the population have been vaccinated so the cautious roll out of easing should continue.

The only way we should be bringing in further restrictions is if we reach a point where we discover a variant that is is resistant to the vaccine, any local containment of the strain has been unsuccessful and hospitals are starting to be over-run.
 
simon12 said:
If we can't relax measures next week when can we? We are not in a situation when our hospitals could be overwhelmed
Click to expand...

Actually that's probably not yet true - and one of the tests is "The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of the virus ". Right now we don't know what the impact of the Indian variants (plural) will be, but just looking at the map it looks like "something" is happening in the M6/M62/M1 corridors from Blackburn to Derby, not just Bolton. But the fact that Bolton is seeing cases tripling in some areas, and in particular Lever Edge is up to nearly 700 cases per 100k (which is approaching "hospitals being overwhelmed" territory), suggests that these new variants could be particularly dangerous. It could just be that it's just an effect of the social conditions of people travelling to/from India from the Lancashire mill towns, but it's better to be cautious until we have more data - it's all rather reminiscent of what was happening in Kent in November.

It's also worth noting that before the Indian variants, the models suggested it was touch-and-go whether we would see another wave on reopening - they had been more pessimistic and thought that we probably would, but that threat had receded with more data on vaccine efficacy and the vaccine rollout going well. But I suspect they are now pointing towards another wave.

1620996626487.png


Polcho said:
Should the government postpone Mondays opening up, or should they ignore it?
Click to expand...

It's a really tough one, and I wouldn't be too hard on the people who have to make these kinds of decisions. But I'd observe that it's much easier to delay relaxations than to introduce restrictions again, and also you really don't want to change plans at the last minute unless you have to as it really screws up businesses that eg have beer in pub cellars etc.

There's some "easy" stuff that can be done, like throwing vaccine/ators at the worst-affected areas until all over 18's are single-jabbed and over 50s are double-jabbed (which is now starting to happen, in Blackburn at least). And government should be emphasising the message that the 21 June date is not set in stone, and may well be postponed. And generally damp down Step 3 a bit - requiring lateral flow tests for high-risk activities like weddings etc.

But I think we have got to the stage in places like Bolton and Blackburn where more needs to be done - at the very least I would require a test or certificate of (2 jabs + 2 weeks) for anything indoors, if not just closing down indoors stuff altogether in those high-risk places, with appropriate increases in Restart grants etc, and probably more generally have a reversal of indoors Step 2 (with grants) across Manc/Lancs/Yorks.
 
I came across this in a news magazine this morning. It was originally published in New York, and concerns efforts being made to overcome vaccine hesitancy, and some of the innovative ideas to encourage people to get the jab . . . . . . "In the face of falling demand, many states are not taking up their full allocation of vaccines from the federal government, or are scaling back their requests. Now, New York is offering baseball fans free tickets if they get vaccinated at the game; West Virginia is offering $100 savings bonds; and New Jersey, free drinks at breweries."

Now that IS tempting :smallcheers:
 
People at my work are acting like corvid never existed sitting too close together in groups with no face coverings and i see groups of young people gathering with no distancing, we also hear (in the thread) that people are walking into supermarkets with no coverings, you can bet they will be the first to moan when the Indian version causes easing to be delayed.



People eligible for a vaccine in areas where the Indian virus variant is spreading are being urged to get the jab.
Health minister Edward Argar said there had been a "minor increase" in hospital presentations in Bolton, mainly among 35-65 year olds who were unvaccinated.
Meanwhile, the Army will be deployed in Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen to help mass testing efforts.
Cases of the Indian variant have nearly tripled in the past week, data showed.
Surge testing is taking place in targeted areas across England where virus variants have been found, including postcodes within several London boroughs, Sefton, Worcestershire, and Nottingham.
Prof Anthony Harnden, who advises the government on vaccinations, said there were still "lots of unvaccinated people in at-risk groups in these areas".
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The worry is that those unvaccinated vulnerable individuals, those over-50, unvaccinated will develop Covid from this more transmissible [variant] and end up in hospital."
Prof Harnden said the Indian variant was "clearly more transmissible" than the current dominant virus type - but vaccines should still protect against severe disease.
"That's why we're imploring [local authorities] to get out there and vaccinate their unvaccinated people," he added.
Second doses will also be speeded-up for older age groups in affected areas - in a move described by Prof Harnden as providing "better short-term protection" in an "urgent situation".
Dr Helen Wall, who is leading the vaccination effort in Bolton, said the target for Saturday was to distribute 4,000 jabs.
She said 10,000 people eligible for jabs had yet to be vaccinated in the BL4 and BL5 postcode areas, with issues like not having phone credit to make a booking often cited as a reason for putting off taking the vaccine.
Asked what would happen if a younger person turned up for a jab, Dr Wall said vaccinators were following the guidance but would "look for reasons to vaccinate people, not reasons not to within those criteria of eligibility".
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the new variant - first discovered in India - could affect the timing of the last step in England's roadmap out of lockdown from 21 June.
Mr Johnson said he did not believe that the "present evidence" showed a need to delay the next stage in the easing of lockdown in England on Monday.


Full article - Covid: Get the jab plea amid variant hotspot fears
 
Last edited:
Chippy_Tea said:
People at my work are acting like corvid never existed sitting too close together in groups with no face coverings and i see groups of young people gathering with no distancing, we also hear (in the thread) that people are walking into supermarkets with no coverings, you can bet they will be the first to moan when the Indian version causes easing to be delayed.



People eligible for a vaccine in areas where the Indian virus variant is spreading are being urged to get the jab.
Health minister Edward Argar said there had been a "minor increase" in hospital presentations in Bolton, mainly among 35-65 year olds who were unvaccinated.
Meanwhile, the Army will be deployed in Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen to help mass testing efforts.
Cases of the Indian variant have nearly tripled in the past week, data showed.
Surge testing is taking place in targeted areas across England where virus variants have been found, including postcodes within several London boroughs, Sefton, Worcestershire, and Nottingham.
Prof Anthony Harnden, who advises the government on vaccinations, said there were still "lots of unvaccinated people in at-risk groups in these areas".
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The worry is that those unvaccinated vulnerable individuals, those over-50, unvaccinated will develop Covid from this more transmissible [variant] and end up in hospital."
Prof Harnden said the Indian variant was "clearly more transmissible" than the current dominant virus type - but vaccines should still protect against severe disease.
"That's why we're imploring [local authorities] to get out there and vaccinate their unvaccinated people," he added.
Second doses will also be speeded-up for older age groups in affected areas - in a move described by Prof Harnden as providing "better short-term protection" in an "urgent situation".
Dr Helen Wall, who is leading the vaccination effort in Bolton, said the target for Saturday was to distribute 4,000 jabs.
She said 10,000 people eligible for jabs had yet to be vaccinated in the BL4 and BL5 postcode areas, with issues like not having phone credit to make a booking often cited as a reason for putting off taking the vaccine.
Asked what would happen if a younger person turned up for a jab, Dr Wall said vaccinators were following the guidance but would "look for reasons to vaccinate people, not reasons not to within those criteria of eligibility".
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the new variant - first discovered in India - could affect the timing of the last step in England's roadmap out of lockdown from 21 June.
Mr Johnson said he did not believe that the "present evidence" showed a need to delay the next stage in the easing of lockdown in England on Monday.


Full article - Covid: Get the jab plea amid variant hotspot fears
Click to expand...

It is an unfortunate fact that selfishness and stupidity are hard wired into some people. I am pretty sure that Boris realises this when he warns that we will all have to learn to live with Covid. For many of us this is not a comfortable prospect . . . . . :(
 
Hop_it said:
In the face of falling demand, many states are not taking up their full allocation of vaccines from the federal government, or are scaling back their requests. Now, New York is offering baseball fans free tickets if they get vaccinated at the game; West Virginia is offering $100 savings bonds; and New Jersey, free drinks at breweries."
Click to expand...

The most high-profile one is entry into a $1m lottery in Ohio. But not surprisingly, free beer works really well, in fact you don't need much of an incentive - $100 doesn't work much better than $25 to attract all the people who are just a bit lazy :
https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2021...cret-to-getting-more-people-free-beer-n388933
Reading up a bit more on B.1.617.2, the most worrying of the several "Indian variants", it's notable that SAGE normally take a few days to publish their minutes but instead rushed them out yesterday :
https://assets.publishing.service.g...e/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf
It's almost like they needed their thoughts to be out there before something happens on Monday. Highlights :
R remains stubbornly high, in the 0.7-1.1 range across the UK.
ONS suggest around 50k are infected
"There are now multiple fast-growing clusters of [the Indian variant] in the UK, with the largest in the Northwest of England...Transmission of this variant is currently faster than that of the [Kent] variant (high confidence)...Observed doubling times are around a week or shorter for some of the largest clusters but slower in others.

It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than [Kent] (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. There are also plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible.

If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to [Kent], sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England(SAGE 88) indicate that it is likelythat progressing with step 3 alone(with no other local, regional,or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to,or largerthan,previous peaks).Progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak."

This thread from Kit Yates at Bath gives a bit more detail :


In a word this is why they're worried :
1621084788330.png


Subsequent posts suggest that the rise of B.1.617.2 is not an artefact of testing or travel, it seems to be "real" - and it's actually more prevalent in London than in the NW, which suggests London could be the next story :
1621085213792.png

"the rises in B1617.2 when other variants are falling suggests higher transmissibility." Obviously it's early days and we don't have enough data. The 50% more transmissible thing seems to be the worst-case of a range of scenarios the modellers are looking at - but even the possibility that even with jabs, we could still be back in a "January" should be enough of a warning that we're not out of the woods yet. I'm now convinced that we should be tightening things up even more than I suggested above, this looks serious.

Conversely I have seen arguments that it looks like the Indian variants have been around for quite a while and if they were truly a lot more transmissible then they would have taken over sooner, you can't rule out that social factors are playing a significant role, for instance it still seems that it's chaos at airports :

https://inews.co.uk/news/arrivals-f...close-to-other-passengers-says-ex-pat-1002477
And of course we would have far less of it if Johnson had put India on the red list at the same time as Pakistan and Bangladesh rather than delaying several weeks because he wanted a photo-op around Indian trade talks. This is on him.
 
Analysis box by Chris Mason, political correspondent

Once again, the government is being forced to draw up an assessment of risk, with only partial epidemiological data, but where the economic and social costs of the restrictions are huge.
Its scientists fret that if - and it's a big if - the Indian variant continues to spread much more quickly than others, the picture could soon look bleak.
Ever since the publication of the plan for easing restrictions in England in February, the prime minister's language has been peppered with references to it being "cautious but irreversible".
That allows for a slowing down, or even a halt to unlocking. But not going backwards.
To slam on the breaks now, postponing Monday's unlocking, would have been a big moment.
To go into reverse, if the data is dire in the coming weeks, would be bigger.
On several occasions last year, the government made promises about the return of normal life - or elements of it - which circumstances later meant it was unable to keep.
It has since been much more cautious, with some critics demanding it move more quickly - pressure it has resisted.
Only data in the coming weeks will determine conclusively if the decision to press ahead with reopening on Monday was, on balance, wise
 
I don't follow the news. Can you catch the Indian variant if you have had one of the jabs that are being offered in the UK?
 
Leon103 said:
I don't follow the news. Can you catch the Indian variant if you have had one of the jabs that are being offered in the UK?
Click to expand...

We don't have full data but best guess at present is that the Indian variants don't break the vaccine protection too badly - a bit more than "classic" SARS2, but not as much as some of the variants.

But even if you are properly vaccinated (ie 2 weeks after your second jab), there's still a 5-10% chance of catching "classic" SARS2 let alone the variants and passing it on, you're just rather unlikely to die.

The Joint Biosecurity Centre was set up precisely to advise on stuff like local lockdowns but it looks like they might as well not bother because Johnson Knows Best :

"Scientists at the Joint Biosecurity Centre provided analysis and data to the government which suggested that the conditions had not been met for the northwest of England to move to the next phase of the road map and that the northwest should be excluded from the easing of restrictions or that the roadmap be paused for the whole country.
Minutes of Thursday’s emergency meeting of the Sage committee of scientific advisers reveal that ministers were told progressing with “step three” of unlocking might lead to a “substantial resurgence” of hospitalisations “similar to, or larger than, previous peaks”, which would wreak havoc in the NHS. And if the government also persists in unlocking on June 21, the size of the third wave could double that of January’s peak. Senior government sources said the modelling presented was “not convincing” and that ministers decided to press ahead"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...6?shareToken=2e29d0a8de6fdd450e29f9a0ed96f03d
 
BBC News -
The UK has "increasing confidence" that Covid-19 vaccines work against the Indian variant of the virus, the health secretary has said.
Scientists believe that the variant is more transmissible and cases of it nearly tripled to 1,313 in the past week in England.
But Matt Hancock said early lab data showed vaccines remained effective.
He said the majority of those in hospital in Bolton - a hotspot for the Indian variant - were unvaccinated.
The health secretary said that the variant, known as B.1.617.2, was "relatively widespread in small numbers" in most of the country.
It comes as England is due to move to stage three of the government's roadmap for easing lockdown on Monday, with socialising in groups of six indoors as well as some international travel to be allowed.
On Friday Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the strain could pose "serious disruption" to the final stage of lockdown easing in England on 21 June.
Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Mr Hancock said that it was "quite likely" that the variant would become the dominant strain in the UK.
He said: "What that reinforces is the importance of people coming forward for testing and being careful because this isn't over yet.
"But the good news is because we have increasing confidence that the vaccine works against the variant, the strategy is on track - it's just the virus has gained a bit of pace and we've therefore all got to be that bit more careful and cautious."
Mr Hancock also defended the easing of lockdown rules in England from Monday, saying the government's strategy was to "replace the restrictions with vaccination" as the first line of defence against the virus.
But Prof Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, told the BBC that even though rules were being eased in most parts of the UK on Monday people should be "very cautious about mixing".
A decision on whether all legal restrictions could be ended next month would be made on 14 June, Mr Hancock said.
He also confirmed over-35s in England would be able to book an appointment for their Covid-19 jabs in the coming week.

In Bolton there are 18 people in hospital with coronavirus, with the majority of those not having the jab despite being eligible, the health secretary said.
He added that five people had ended up in hospital having had one jab, while there was one there who had received both doses but was "frail".

The Greater Manchester town, where the Indian variant is spreading, has seen a spike in infections and Mr Hancock said he could not rule out imposing local restrictions.
Surge testing is taking place in targeted areas across England where virus variants have been found, including postcodes within several London boroughs, Sefton, Worcestershire, and Nottingham.
Prof John Edmunds, who sits on the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, told Andrew Marr people should be "concerned but not panicking" about the new variant.
"We are in a much, much better position than we were when the Kent variant started spreading," he said, pointing to hospitals having few Covid patients and the vaccine programme being in place.
On Saturday the number of patients in hospital with Covid dropped below 1,000 for the first time in eight months, down from the peak of nearly 40,000 in January.

Despite concerns about the Indian variant, coronavirus restrictions across England, Scotland and Wales are due to be relaxed from Monday.
Curbs lifting across the devolved nations vary, but there will be a greater degree of indoor mixing allowed and more hospitality venues will be able to reopen.
Northern Ireland is due to review its restrictions later this month.
Labour's Yvette Cooper, chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee, said she felt worried about Monday's easing but recognised that businesses had prepared to open and that the government said vaccines were effective against the variant.
She said it was right to concentrate on increasing vaccinations, testing and help fill the financial "gap" so people can self-isolate.
On Saturday, the British Medical Association (BMA) said it had serious concerns about the decision to continue with the easing of lockdown restrictions.
Meanwhile, minutes from a meeting of government scientific advisers, held on Thursday, said that "an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed" in areas where the Indian variant is already spreading.
And if the variant was 40-50% more transmissible than the current dominant type, they warned proceeding to step three of England's roadmap on Monday would likely "lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)".
 
Covid: Bolton lockdown 'not ruled out' - Hancock
A local lockdown in Bolton has not been ruled out to help protect people from the spread of the Indian coronavirus variant, Matt Hancock has said.
The health secretary said the "vast majority" of people in the town who are in hospital with the new variant had not taken up the offer of a vaccine.
He said the government was prepared to implement restrictions if necessary.
Mr Hancock said the plan was to "pile in testing and vaccinations to try to get on top of this".
He said five people who had received a single jab were in hospital with the Indian variant in Bolton.
One patient had received both doses - but they are "very frail".
Asked if anyone has died with the Indian variant after receiving two jabs, Mr Hancock said: "Not that we're aware of".

Speaking on Sky's Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme, he added: "We've put in a huge amount of testing. We've reinforced that with army personnel as well, and we're expanding the vaccination programme - especially for those second jabs which are the best protection against ending up in hospital."
On the prospect of further action, he said: "At the moment we're taking the approach that worked in south London - which is this massive surge testing - but of course we don't rule out further action.
"Given though Bolton has been in some form of a lockdown for a year, it's not a step we want to take but of course we might have to take it and we will if it's necessary to protect people."
Bolton in Greater Manchester has seen a sharp spike in infections since mid-April, Public Health England said.
In the town, the B.1.617.2 variant now makes up the majority of new coronavirus cases.
Leader of Bolton Council David Greenhalgh urged people to get the vaccine.
"We've been knocking on doors," he said.

"You can take a horse to water but you can't always make it drink but we are doing everything we can through all our partnerships, through our faith leaders and everyone, to get the message out there: get a vaccine, it protects us all.
"If you've got the offer, the offer is going to be there... please take up that vaccine," the Conservative councillor added.
Attention has been focused on just a handful of neighbourhoods to the south of the town centre - Rumworth, Deane and Great Lever.
About half of new cases detected in Bolton over the past week have come from those three areas alone.
There is currently no evidence it causes more severe disease or can evade Covid vaccines in any way - the single biggest concern of scientists.


BBC NEWS.
 
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