Just to show the correlation between vaccines and cases. Its far from exact though.
Vaccines 2nd dose
Cases
Vaccines 2nd dose
Cases
Covid the jab and the final stage.
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The R number is currently 1.3 and rising should the government have relaxed the rules but kept mask wearing for crowded places, they are suggesting hospital visits will soar by between 1000 and 5000 a day.
Where I currently live (hopefully not much longer) coventry some areas are still quite under teh average but if you look in Birmingham and Leicester its pretty bad there too..
BeerCat
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I do not believe this for a moment.
Northern_Brewer
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If R is rising then you shouldn't be relaxing rules, simples.
The latest SPI-M-O report on what the main models are saying makes for interesting reading :
"The scale of the resurgence in hospital admissions after 19th July is highly uncertain and depends on unknowable factors including how behaviours change in the coming weeks and months. Many modelled scenarios show a peak in hospital admissions well below that of January 2021, but SPI-M-O cannot rule out a wave of a similar or even larger scale...
SPI-M-O’s best estimate for R in England is between 1.2 and 1.5 and the growth rate is between +3% and +7% per day, based on data available up to 5th July...R is a lagging indicator, reflecting the state of the epidemic approximately two to three weeks ago."
The fact that a repeat of last winter is even a possibility should be pause for thought. One point they make is that the impact on hospitals is super-sensitive to the number of high-risk people without vaccines, and this is where we come back to the database problem. 1.98m 75-79yo's have been jabbed, whereas the ONS estimate there is only 1.94m in the country! But the NHS system reckons there are 2.08m, implying 95% have been jabbed.
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Northern_Brewer
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This is a good article from a member of Independent SAGE on the power of exponential growth :
blogs.bmj.com
In March 2020, cases in the UK were thought to be doubling approximately every three and a half days. If this were true, locking down just a week earlier would have meant entering the lockdown with a quarter of the cases. Tens of thousands of lives would have been saved
Kit Yates: The dangers of allowing exponential growth - The BMJ
What is exponential growth, and why is it relevant to epidemics? Kit Yates explains Although the concept of exponential growth is not new in the public consciousness, a lot of [...]More...
It is quite telling really
Northern_Brewer
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This is a great article on the challenges facing staffing in hospitality, obviously Brexit is part of it but the impact of track & trace forcing closures is another. I've seen estimates that up to 10% of the workforce will end up having to isolate, and hospitality will feature disproportionately in that, with a young (ie relatively unvaccinated) workforce and lots of customer interaction in confined spaces with lots of cheering over football etc.
www.standard.co.uk
It's a tough one to resolve, other than hospitality taking a lot more care over staff with respect to masks etc.
Restaurants on the ‘ping-demic’: We’re in a perpetual state of anxiety
For restaurants, pubs and bars, the ongoing staff shortage is only getting worse – and the track-and-trace app is only making things harder. David Ellis reports
It's a tough one to resolve, other than hospitality taking a lot more care over staff with respect to masks etc.
Northern_Brewer
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Some people do not believe the earth is round - doesn't mean it's not true, it just means that personal disbelief doesn't mean ****.
London transport will continue with masks on all its various types of transport. Scotland will continue with masks on all transport and in shops and pubs if not seated. Why is England stopping the use of masks absolute madness.
I agree, we should continue to wear masks in crowded places until the R number drops again to stop people spreading it.
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5 live news just reported the number of new cases in the 18 to 23 group has soared and the number in that group who haven't been vaccinated Is a lot lower than the government were hoping for.
London's key workers and commuters have reacted to conflicting advice and changes to rules around the wearing of masks being introduced on Monday. (BBC News)
The prime minister has said the government would "expect and recommend" face coverings to be worn in enclosed and crowded places, but it will no longer be mandatory from 19 July.
However, London mayor Sadiq Khan said he was not prepared to put Tube, bus and other transport users at risk by relaxing the rules on face masks.
Wearing face coverings has been mandatory on public transport for the past year to reduce the spread of the virus.
El Koulibaly has four children and has worked for nearly 15 years as a driver on the Docklands Light Railway (DLR). He said masks offered protection to him and his family.
"The prime minister says that it's not compulsory. The mayor says it is compulsory. It's going to be a fight between them isn't it? We are in the middle," he said.
"Even though the train is empty, people come to sit behind you. I don't want somebody standing behind me to start coughing.
"My job is to take the train from one end to another end. I don't want to go sick. If I do, the trains are not going to move," he added.
Ermias Abraham has been a bus driver for 11 years and does not believe the wearing of masks will be forever.
"I know people might not feel comfortable wearing masks to work every day, it's as if you're losing you privacy," he said.
"But we are in a very difficult situation.
"It's good to have it and be safe, instead of taking it off and one person might catch it. For quite some time, until this pandemic is cleared, it doesn't kill you to wear a mask."
Allie, who did not want to be pictured, felt that people needed to be told to wear a mask.
"If there's a rule people will follow it. But if it's optional, it's too confusing and you can't really enforce anything," she said.
"Public transport can get really crowded and it's not always well ventilated and cases of the new variant are going up, so I think it would be madness just to scrap it."
Abidemi Joshua disagreed and felt people should have a choice. "If I really want to wear it, fine. If I don't want to wear it, fine," she said.
But she added wearing one now felt "important".
"For the government to be saying we should stop wearing the masks on the train and on the bus, I think it's very risky because unlike before, when you sat on the bus you had to sit alone, now people have to sit beside you," she said.
William Apawu, who works as a cleaner at Woolwich Arsenal DLR station, agreed it was a matter of personal choice.
"I think it's the best way to prevent the spread of the virus," he said.
"Although it might be stressful putting it on for a longer period of time, I think we've got no other option than to put it on to prevent the spread of disease.
"It's better than being infected by the virus."
The prime minister has said the government would "expect and recommend" face coverings to be worn in enclosed and crowded places, but it will no longer be mandatory from 19 July.
However, London mayor Sadiq Khan said he was not prepared to put Tube, bus and other transport users at risk by relaxing the rules on face masks.
Wearing face coverings has been mandatory on public transport for the past year to reduce the spread of the virus.
El Koulibaly has four children and has worked for nearly 15 years as a driver on the Docklands Light Railway (DLR). He said masks offered protection to him and his family.
"The prime minister says that it's not compulsory. The mayor says it is compulsory. It's going to be a fight between them isn't it? We are in the middle," he said.
"Even though the train is empty, people come to sit behind you. I don't want somebody standing behind me to start coughing.
"My job is to take the train from one end to another end. I don't want to go sick. If I do, the trains are not going to move," he added.
Ermias Abraham has been a bus driver for 11 years and does not believe the wearing of masks will be forever.
"I know people might not feel comfortable wearing masks to work every day, it's as if you're losing you privacy," he said.
"But we are in a very difficult situation.
"It's good to have it and be safe, instead of taking it off and one person might catch it. For quite some time, until this pandemic is cleared, it doesn't kill you to wear a mask."
Allie, who did not want to be pictured, felt that people needed to be told to wear a mask.
"If there's a rule people will follow it. But if it's optional, it's too confusing and you can't really enforce anything," she said.
"Public transport can get really crowded and it's not always well ventilated and cases of the new variant are going up, so I think it would be madness just to scrap it."
Abidemi Joshua disagreed and felt people should have a choice. "If I really want to wear it, fine. If I don't want to wear it, fine," she said.
But she added wearing one now felt "important".
"For the government to be saying we should stop wearing the masks on the train and on the bus, I think it's very risky because unlike before, when you sat on the bus you had to sit alone, now people have to sit beside you," she said.
William Apawu, who works as a cleaner at Woolwich Arsenal DLR station, agreed it was a matter of personal choice.
"I think it's the best way to prevent the spread of the virus," he said.
"Although it might be stressful putting it on for a longer period of time, I think we've got no other option than to put it on to prevent the spread of disease.
"It's better than being infected by the virus."
I have had to travel for work this week, by trains, tube and buses from the midlands, across London to the south coast. At home the wearing of face coverings is pretty well observed, on the trains I found it a pita to keep on for hours at a time and noticed a small percentage who ignored it, on the tube in London it was more rigid, with a fellow passenger chastised, when he coughed with his bandana below his nose.
On the south coast things seem much more relaxed, maybe only three quarters of adults seem to bother with face coverings on buses and in shops etc.
It seems the legal requirement will be relaxed soon in England and it will again be up to peoples common sense as to whether they choose to wear one or not. I would certainly rather not have to, but will carry one and will assess the risk before deciding when to put it on.
On the south coast things seem much more relaxed, maybe only three quarters of adults seem to bother with face coverings on buses and in shops etc.
It seems the legal requirement will be relaxed soon in England and it will again be up to peoples common sense as to whether they choose to wear one or not. I would certainly rather not have to, but will carry one and will assess the risk before deciding when to put it on.
I don't like wearing one but do for the good of us all i wish they had not said its down to us to decide if or if not to wear one as i think there will be big spikes in cases and places will be locked down again.
If you haven't had the jab and there is no medical reason for not having it you need to read this -
'Never been this ill in my life': Inside a Covid hospital ward where patient urges others to get jab
For the first time since the Delta coronavirus variant has taken off in the UK, my team and I have been into a Covid ward.
It is also the first time we’ve been into a hospital since a sizeable number of the population has been vaccinated.
What, then, did we find? In truth, it was pretty much as expected but that doesn’t mean it was any less mind boggling.
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals Trust has around 60 Covid patients at the moment and it has been steadily climbing.
More than 60% of them - who are in intensive care and on acute wards - haven’t been vaccinated. It’s such a large figure, it’s almost incredulous.
There are fit and healthy people in their 30s on ventilators. These are people who are eligible for the jab, decided not to have it (for whatever reason) and are now fighting for their lives.
We’ve heard the warnings from scientists and ministers for months now but seeing the impact of not getting the vaccine is no less shocking.
I spoke to 28-year-old Darren, who caught the virus from a colleague in the pub.
He's not anti-vaccinations, he just thought he wouldn't get it badly and didn’t think he’d need the jab.
He's spent the last two nights in intensive care. He's on a ward now but is still very ill and not in a good way. His message? Get the vaccination.
On the flip side I have also met a patient who was double jabbed.
She was in her 50s, had lung disease and would, her consultant said, normally be in the at risk category.
"I am 100% sure if I didn't have the vaccine, I would be in a very different position," Helen, who is being treated for Covid at Royal Preston Hospital, tells ITV News
Although Covid ended her up in hospital, she didn’t get that ill and is on her way home today.
She said the vaccine saved her life.
"I was double vaccinated in December due to underlying health problems.
"We were told at the time it wouldn't be 100% which I accepted whole-heartedly - any protection is better than none.
"I didn't hesitate to have the vaccine and I am 100% sure if I didn't have the vaccine I would be in a very different position," she added.
I would say two things struck me today. Patients are much younger and most are unvaccinated.
Medics at Preston Hospital are worried about the next few weeks, since 'Freedom Day' will no doubt bring in more patients, but their main message today is that getting vaccinated with save lives.
You can’t say it more simply than that.
'Never been this ill in my life': Inside a Covid hospital ward where patient urges others to get jab | ITV News
'Never been this ill in my life': Inside a Covid hospital ward where patient urges others to get jab
For the first time since the Delta coronavirus variant has taken off in the UK, my team and I have been into a Covid ward.
It is also the first time we’ve been into a hospital since a sizeable number of the population has been vaccinated.
What, then, did we find? In truth, it was pretty much as expected but that doesn’t mean it was any less mind boggling.
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals Trust has around 60 Covid patients at the moment and it has been steadily climbing.
More than 60% of them - who are in intensive care and on acute wards - haven’t been vaccinated. It’s such a large figure, it’s almost incredulous.
There are fit and healthy people in their 30s on ventilators. These are people who are eligible for the jab, decided not to have it (for whatever reason) and are now fighting for their lives.
We’ve heard the warnings from scientists and ministers for months now but seeing the impact of not getting the vaccine is no less shocking.
I spoke to 28-year-old Darren, who caught the virus from a colleague in the pub.
He's not anti-vaccinations, he just thought he wouldn't get it badly and didn’t think he’d need the jab.
He's spent the last two nights in intensive care. He's on a ward now but is still very ill and not in a good way. His message? Get the vaccination.
On the flip side I have also met a patient who was double jabbed.
She was in her 50s, had lung disease and would, her consultant said, normally be in the at risk category.
"I am 100% sure if I didn't have the vaccine, I would be in a very different position," Helen, who is being treated for Covid at Royal Preston Hospital, tells ITV News
Although Covid ended her up in hospital, she didn’t get that ill and is on her way home today.
She said the vaccine saved her life.
"I was double vaccinated in December due to underlying health problems.
"We were told at the time it wouldn't be 100% which I accepted whole-heartedly - any protection is better than none.
"I didn't hesitate to have the vaccine and I am 100% sure if I didn't have the vaccine I would be in a very different position," she added.
I would say two things struck me today. Patients are much younger and most are unvaccinated.
Medics at Preston Hospital are worried about the next few weeks, since 'Freedom Day' will no doubt bring in more patients, but their main message today is that getting vaccinated with save lives.
You can’t say it more simply than that.
'Never been this ill in my life': Inside a Covid hospital ward where patient urges others to get jab | ITV News
Freedom Day? Freedom from
1. Catching the virus
2. Freedom from spreading it.
3. Freedom from putting your life and other at risk.
No to all the above.
It should be called "Herd Immunity Day" or "Pile the bodies high day"
1. Catching the virus
2. Freedom from spreading it.
3. Freedom from putting your life and other at risk.
No to all the above.
It should be called "Herd Immunity Day" or "Pile the bodies high day"
Northern_Brewer
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See this from the FT (put "Masks are a small price to pay to help avoid another England lockdown" into Google News to swerve their paywall)
"The debate is particularly obvious in the Palace of Westminster. Like most workplaces, masks are currently required for shuffling around its corridors. Staff manning the libraries and coffee shops are fully masked while the libertarian Conservative MPs march around with their faces uncovered, bristling whenever officials remind them of the very guidelines that the government put into law. This same bloody-mindedness lies behind Boris Johnson’s decision to drop the legal requirement for masks, along with almost all other Covid measures, from July 19. Even though cases are running at more than 30,000 a day and hospital admissions have jumped by 48 per cent in the past week, Johnson has framed it as a move away from “government by diktat”....A senior government minister confesses that Johnson’s hand was forced. “Colleagues have reached the end of their tether with restrictions. We couldn’t have got [continued restrictions] through on Tory votes and there’s no way we could have passed with Labour. It would have been the end of Boris, so he indulged his libertarian side,” they say. Whitehall is now aflutter with speculation that, since public opinion is set against him, Johnson will have to U-turn. According to the pollsters YouGov, two-thirds of Britons plan to continue wearing masks after the legal requirement ends. Another survey from Ipsos Mori suggests that 40 per cent would like to keep them permanently in shops and on public transport....they only work if “everyone does it”. Even if 70 per cent continue to wear them, most of their effectiveness disappears. “I understand the government’s reluctance to actually mandate it. On other hand if it’s not mandated, it probably won’t do any good,” he says."
In other words - because a few dozen Tory MPs are bored, and Johnson doesn't want to work with Labour to help save lives.
My, I wonder why that could be? And it's typical of this government that as soon as things get more complicated than "appear on TV at the football", they start blaming the public rather than trying to find ways to get things done. Given the infectivity of delta we really need to get as many as possible jabbed, and we need to look around the world to see what works. 2 million French signed up in 48h when Macron announced you'd need to be jabbed to do nice stuff. Bribing people with cash has worked well in the US - and it doesn't need to be much, £20 will do, although it might be better to give it in the form of vouchers that can be redeemed at local businesses. Lotteries also work. Try anything - just get people jabbed.
There's now as many patients on ventilators as when the tiers were announced, Monday saw as many cases as Boxing Day.
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