General election

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Which party will you vote for

  • Labour

  • Conservative

  • Reform

  • Green

  • SNP

  • Lib Dem

  • Still on the fence.

  • Plaid cymru

  • Local Independant


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Saw this on GB news just now -
1717076373456.png
 
OK humour me here.

The Tories are accusing Labour of doing a "socialist sweep" saying Abbot and Corbyn can't stand. Neither can the other 2 anti-semites who are apparently on the left of the party.

Is that a bad thing? I've always said "Nearest the middle wins"

Frankly, you could have dressed up John Major with a red rose and a Labour tie and he would have beaten Boris in 2019.

I read today that Boris' Conservative Government were regarded as right wing as UKIP 2014-2016. And Corbyn was seen as further from the centre. That's quite shocking that the most right wing Tories we've ever had swept the board.
 
OK humour me here.

The Tories are accusing Labour of doing a "socialist sweep" saying Abbot and Corbyn can't stand. Neither can the other 2 anti-semites who are apparently on the left of the party.

Is that a bad thing? I've always said "Nearest the middle wins"

Frankly, you could have dressed up John Major with a red rose and a Labour tie and he would have beaten Boris in 2019.

I read today that Boris' Conservative Government were regarded as right wing as UKIP 2014-2016. And Corbyn was seen as further from the centre. That's quite shocking that the most right wing Tories we've ever had swept the board.

The mess that is slowly being uncovered with Labour is very worrying the mixed messaging from Raynor and Starmer shows the cracks, the perception that Starmer's team have created a purge on left wing and pro Islamist candidates is deeply concerning, Starmer has denied this but it seems either he is not fully informed or some behind the scenes are looks to destabilise?

This side show is taking away from the important issues that should be getting addressed.

I see yet another Tory MP has stood down and seeks to defect and urges voters to vote Labour.

The silly season is getting into full swing
 
Probably not.

First he would need to leave Reform and join the Tories.

Candidates for leadership of the Conservative Party need to be a sitting MP. Since he’s not standing as a Tory candidate in the GE, he’ll need to rely on there being a by-election for one of the seats and then to be nominated to run in it.

He then needs whoever is Tory leader to stand down. It’s probably more likely that any change would happen immediately after the GE, if the polls are correct about the number of seats they are likely to lose, at which point he wouldn’t be eligible. Whether there’s another change in leader before the next GE isn’t known, the number of leadership changes of the last few years is unusual.

So, yeah, it’s a long shot.

Besides, this thread is about the upcoming GE next month not any future general election.
The thread just says General Election, not which election. I only brought Farrage into the equation because he stated he would be leading the Tories by 2026.
 
You should read my post properly - my point was that appointing Farage would not do the Tories any good, as he's just not that popular among the voters they need to get back. So he would be another Truss - wildly popular among the members, disaster among the public. So what's the point?

And that's aside from all the conditions that would need to happen before he could be in a position to be elected leader of the Tories. Remember he is the majority shareholder of Reform, which the Tories currently (and bizarrely) regard as their biggest rivals, so he couldn't just join the Tories as an ordinary member, there would have to be some kind of merger with Reform, which would be fiercely opposed by the centrist Tory MPs who would rightly see a merger with Reform as the end of the Tories as we know them. So we will have to see how the balance of power within the Tories shakes out after the election - there's still a lot of centrists in the Parliamentary party, and it seems that the need to appoint a lot of candidates at the last minute will put a lot of power in the hands of CCHQ at the expense of local members who are generally more hard-right.

But he's yesterday's man. He is wholly associated with Brexit, which has gone so well that the Tories are trying really hard not to mention it at all this time, when it was the centrepiece of their last campaign. He's tried a second act by focussing Reform on immigration, but they may well not even win a seat, partly because immigration is not in the top 3 issues that people are worried about. They want answers on the economy, NHS and the cost of living, and Farage has almost nothing to say on those matters.

The Tories did not do a good job at the negotiation, but the fundamental reason was that our hand was so weak.

I don't think you realise just how widely hated they are right now - and how exhausted they are as a party. If it wasn't for Corbyn and Brexit they would have lost in 2019, as it is they survived 2019 only to be destroyed in 2024. This is going to be one of those generational elections like 1979 and 1997 where the opposition ends up in such disarray that they lose two if not three elections on the bounce - if they even survive at all in their current form.

Starmer could murder David Attenborough on national TV and Labour would still win the 2028/9 election, that's how bad things are for the Tories.
The Labour Party has 4 years to pull something out of the hat otherwise they are going to be on the nose too 4 years is a long time in politics and people have short memories. Who would have thought Boris Johnson would win an 80 seat majority in the 2019 election? But he did.
Your personal opinions, as mine don't count for much when trying to forecast the future. They are just uneducated opinions
 
Former Conservative MP Mark Logan has said he is backing Labour at the next general election, saying the party could "bring back optimism into British life".
In an exclusive interview with BBC News, Mr Logan, who represented Bolton North East for the Tories until Parliament dissolved on Thursday, said Labour had been on a "journey" and now offered "centrist politics".
He added that the Tory Party was now "unrecognisable" from the party he joined a decade ago.
Mr Logan won his seat with a majority of just 378 in 2019, making it one of the most marginal in the country.
Mr Logan, who supported Brexit, revealed in the interview that he was standing down and said his application to join Labour was "going in today".
Labour has already chosen a candidate for his former constituency.
Asked if he could run for Labour in the future, he said: "I wouldn't rule out coming back into public life in the future but this is me definitely stepping down in this Parliament.”
Speaking on BBC Question Time, Schools Minister Damian Hinds said his party was focused on offering a "brighter future to families" and "not one individual".
Asked about Mr Logan's decision, the Conservative said: "People make their own decisions. It’s not a decision I would have made."
He added: "The economy’s already turning the corner…and how we offer a brighter future to families throughout this country. That’s what it’s about, not one individual."
A Conservative Party spokesman said: "Much of the association wanted him deselected for inactivity and his failure to be present in Bolton for extended periods of time. And he's been asking No 10 for a peerage."
A second spokesperson said the party would choose a new candidate for Bolton shortly, adding: “It’s notable that Mark Logan has defected to a party he can’t even name a single policy of.
"We wish Mark Logan well with the Labour Party - a party that has no plan for the country and would take us back to square one."
Explaining his decision to support Labour, Mr Logan said: "The time has come to bring back optimism into British public life."
He compared the mood of the country to New Labour's 1997 election campaign, which had Things Can Only Get Better as its official anthem, and was followed by a landslide victory for the party.
"When I look back to my teenage years, in 1997 when Labour came to the fore at that time and we obviously heard the song Things Can Only Get Better, I feel that we're at that point again in British politics and British history," he said.
He added: "For my constituents and for the country, it's right that we get some stability back into the UK, we get optimism, we get new and fresh ideas."

Full article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11kvk1je4o
 
The thread just says General Election, not which election. I only brought Farrage into the equation because he stated he would be leading the Tories by 2026.
As has been said by me and others, nearest the centre wins.
If Labour do get in, even with a coalition, for the Tories to pull it back, they need to become more centrist.

The right will always vote right. The left will always vote left. You've got to win the swingers like me over.

Lurching to the right with Farage isn't going to help the Tories in 2029.
 
Whose centre?
It's a good call.
Generally, my opinion is that this country was always left of centre, but over the last 30 years it's become right of centre.
Compared with other countries in the G7 nations.

Although as I said in the US thread, the US centre is hilariously right wing. Many in Europe see the UK as being right wing apparently - we're lumped in with Poland for that. Centrist Governments are usually Germany, France and Australia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrism defines it well.
I'd also say that's me in a nutshell. I don't want socialism any more than I want Farage, Reform, UKIP, BNP or whatever label it has today.

If you asked me where nearest the centre has been in my lifetime, I'd say either New Labour or Cameron's coalition.
 
Well watching question time last night confirmed one thing Farage is a joke and not a serious politician, the childish behaviour displayed by both Piers Morgan and Farage demonstrated this.

I still have an issue with politicians who stand for one party then seek to do a 180 and go the other way, listening to Mark Logan the other day he admitted he was considering changing sides from 6 months in, how anyone who can stand for election rally on the conservative agenda gain public support then say he was never into that ideology is disrespectful to the voting public. Yes we vote for the candidate a person, but also for their policies and their beliefs and to an extent their party. To jump ship as soon as the sh%t hits the fan is a slap in the face to those who elected him.

For the record absolutely not a Tory fan far far from it, but very sceptical of the current defections, are they for the right reasons or self preservation?

Five weeks to go at this rate the Tory's will struggle to field candidates in each seat!
 
I do have a bit of sympathy for (some) Tories from red wall seats potentially defecting to Labour. They were elected on a manifesto which made some grand claims about 'levelling up', which has amounted to absolutely nothing (in fact, worse than nothing). I might question their judgement about whether such a thing were ever to happen, but I don't think it's impossible some of them (who have been treated pretty shabbily by the party) are pretty hacked off and defecting to labour without seeking a Labour seat.
 
I still have an issue with politicians who stand for one party then seek to do a 180 and go the other way, listening to Mark Logan the other day he admitted he was considering changing sides from 6 months in, how anyone who can stand for election rally on the conservative agenda gain public support then say he was never into that ideology is disrespectful to the voting public. Yes we vote for the candidate a person, but also for their policies and their beliefs and to an extent their party. To jump ship as soon as the sh%t hits the fan is a slap in the face to those who elected him.
Actually I have a lot of sympathy for the centrist Tories elected in 2015 or before, who have seen their party move massively under the control of the mad fringe of Truss, Johnson and the ERG, it's like if the Militant Tendency had fully taken over Labour in the 1980s - but whilst in government. Our system needs a functional, sane Opposition so hopefully they can get things back but it's going to be hard.
 
Actually I have a lot of sympathy for the centrist Tories elected in 2015 or before, who have seen their party move massively under the control of the mad fringe of Truss, Johnson and the ERG, it's like if the Militant Tendency had fully taken over Labour in the 1980s - but whilst in government. Our system needs a functional, sane Opposition so hopefully they can get things back but it's going to be hard.
A functional, sane opposition? We'll be lucky to get a functional, sane government the way things are going.
Looks like the SNP in opposition, judging from the poll, above. Which, let's be honest, is just as valid as any other poll.
 
As has been said by me and others, nearest the centre wins.
If Labour do get in, even with a coalition, for the Tories to pull it back, they need to become more centrist.

The right will always vote right. The left will always vote left. You've got to win the swingers like me over.

Lurching to the right with Farage isn't going to help the Tories in 2029.
As history has shown us, when a country finds itself in financial difficulty the populace looks for blame. That is when a populace party comes to power. (No need to bring up the most obvious one)
Look at the local council elections in Germany the AfD got 26% of the vote, 15 20 years ago that would have seemed impossible.
Geert Wilders shock election win in Holland, another unthinkable result a few years ago.
Like any government whether led by Labour or Tory things are always good while the world economy is in good shape, it is when the global economy has a downturn that voters seek out other parties.
Where I live we have now been under a Labor govt for 10 years, the economy is completely cactus, Victoria owes more money than all the other states put together and things are getting worse.
If Starmer doesn't reduce the cost of living crisis, and people find themselves in more financial hardship they are going to look for someone to blame. I can't see the voters saying, 'Oh we will muddle through these growing financial hardships for another 10 years'.
 
After Thatcher's victory in the 1979 general election, James Callaghan (Labour leader) said that there was a sense of a sea change amongst voters and there was nothing his party could do to change it. That's what is happening now and the Tories are powerless to stop it. Neoliberalism and globalisation have led to success in the polls but ultimately failure economically.

The next government has much to do to rebuild after Thatcher's "legacy" and people now know it.
 
After Thatcher's victory in the 1979 general election, James Callaghan (Labour leader) said that there was a sense of a sea change amongst voters and there was nothing his party could do to change it. That's what is happening now and the Tories are powerless to stop it. Neoliberalism and globalisation have led to success in the polls but ultimately failure economically.

The next government has much to do to rebuild after Thatcher's "legacy" and people now know it.
The sea of change was brought on by the 'Winter of Discontent' ' http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/10/newsid_2518000/2518957.stm
 
Interesting thing about Thatcher was that it wasn't until her second and third term that she achieved a lot of the things she is remembered for, enabled by an opposition that was fracturing and riven by division. Will be interesting to see if history is repeating itself, but with Labour and Conservatives swapping places; it may not be, but things look obvious in hindsight but not necessarily at the time.
 
As history has shown us, when a country finds itself in financial difficulty the populace looks for blame. That is when a populace party comes to power....If Starmer doesn't reduce the cost of living crisis, and people find themselves in more financial hardship they are going to look for someone to blame. I can't see the voters saying, 'Oh we will muddle through these growing financial hardships for another 10 years'.
What you're missing is that the UK was one of the first to flirt with 21st-century populism, and the populists got their moment in 2016 with the Brexit referendum. Since then the Tories' programme of government has been increasingly influenced by the populists until it increasingly looks like a National Front manifesto from the 1970s (ditto the MAGA wing of the US Republicans who literally stole the National Front's slogan). And what has populism delivered?
  • Living standards – as measured by household real disposable income accounting for household composition and housing costs – have fallen by some 7 per cent on average across the distribution relative to 2019.
  • This fall in living standards has hit the bottom half of the income distribution hardest: for the poorest 10 per cent of households, living standards are lower by around 20 per cent compared with 2019-20 levels; for income deciles 2-4, the fall in living standards is on average around 8 per cent.
  • For the poorest 10 per cent of households, this means an income shortfall of some £4,600 (in current prices) in 2024-25 relative to 2019-2020
    We project that the living standards of households in the bottom 40 per cent of the population (earning up to about £34,000 per year) will not return to pre-pandemic levels before April 2028.
  • We project that the living standards of households in the bottom 40 per cent of the population (earning up to about £34,000 per year) will not return to pre-pandemic levels before April 2028.
Moreover the signature policy of populism, Brexit, is generally regarded as having delivered the majority of that cut in disposable income. So aside from a noisy minority (as in #201) the UK is kinda over the quick fixes of the populists, we're preparing for a long slow haul out of the mire that populism helped create.

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