An Ankoù
Landlord.
No. I didn't think so either, but I read it as if it meant there were no plans to prevent exposure so that we can reach the "immunity threshold" as quickly as possible. I'll read it again.
The Coronavirus thread.
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Why is the UK doing it differently?
Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News
Many countries are taking tough measures such as school closures, cancelling mass gatherings and severe travel restrictions. But the UK has adopted relatively modest controls. The difference can be explained partly by the fact that some of the countries are further into their epidemics.
Computer simulations indicate Britain is in the early stages. Its top scientists believe it is too soon to impose severe restrictions .
Such limitations might last several months and risk “self-isolation fatigue”, with people leaving their homes when the epidemic reaches its height. Many elderly people, who are particularly at risk of developing severe symptoms, are already isolated.
Cutting them off from their communities now, when the risks are still relatively low, would create unnecessary difficulties for them.
School closures have also yet to be announced. Such measures are effective for controlling serious flu epidemics, but Covid-19 seems to affect children less.
In addition, school closures would take many much needed NHS staff away from their jobs while they look after their own children.
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Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News
Many countries are taking tough measures such as school closures, cancelling mass gatherings and severe travel restrictions. But the UK has adopted relatively modest controls. The difference can be explained partly by the fact that some of the countries are further into their epidemics.
Computer simulations indicate Britain is in the early stages. Its top scientists believe it is too soon to impose severe restrictions .
Such limitations might last several months and risk “self-isolation fatigue”, with people leaving their homes when the epidemic reaches its height. Many elderly people, who are particularly at risk of developing severe symptoms, are already isolated.
Cutting them off from their communities now, when the risks are still relatively low, would create unnecessary difficulties for them.
School closures have also yet to be announced. Such measures are effective for controlling serious flu epidemics, but Covid-19 seems to affect children less.
In addition, school closures would take many much needed NHS staff away from their jobs while they look after their own children.
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the_quick
Landlord.
There is no preventing measures for visitors in care homes and such, we already know that people without symptoms do spread it - I think is is the policy of the government to let it spread everywhere, as BJ said people will die. So maybe they decided, no point going against it. Let it go and we will pick up the pieces afterwards. Brutal as it is it might make sense, for greater good.
There were calls to make private hospital bed to the public - I bet they will not, wealthy will have much different experience than us plebs. Do MPs and lords have own clinic? I seem to recall lots of grey heads in both houses
There were calls to make private hospital bed to the public - I bet they will not, wealthy will have much different experience than us plebs. Do MPs and lords have own clinic? I seem to recall lots of grey heads in both houses
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That's because school closures are genuinely a debatable one - there are good arguments that on epidemiological grounds you are much better off with first closing public transport and eg gyms (there's more gym members than school kids, lots of bodily fluids spread around, no baby-sitting issues). A lot depends on what the kids do when school is off - if they all stay at home not socialising with other kids, and diligently washing their hands etc then closing schools helps, but in the real world they hang out with kids and you get transmission anyway. Meanwhile a lot of them will be babysat by vulnerable grandparents, or parents who take time off work - a problem if the parents are healthworkers.
Also school needs to be off for months to have a real effect, which really disrupts those taking life-changing exams. Probably the least bad way of doing it is to ask that kids who can stay home do, but school continues for children of healthworkers and those who would otherwise be babysat by grandparents.
The plan seems to be not to avoid exposure altogether, but to tread that fine line between flattening the curve so that you don't exceed the health system's ability to cope, getting the worst of it done before next winter (and the regular pressure on the NHS in winter), and getting an immune response in the majority of people - which in the absence of a vaccine means getting most healthy people infected at some point, in order to slow transmission in the population as the only way to protect the vulnerable.
The big difference is that the UK government and their advisors seems to be that they think you can't contain this forever, so on a long-term view you need to get people immune rather than having extreme sanctions that close it down in the short-term, but you're playing whack-a-mole for eternity.
At least that's my understanding of what's going on.
This interview with a modeller of epidemics on Newsnight gives an idea of where HMG are coming from :
This is a good summary of what to do from the BMJ : https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/02/2...rt-of-the-public-health-response-to-covid-19/
A good summary of where we are from a US perspective : https://www.linkedin.com/content-gu...-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/
The podcasts below can be found here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p085f9hw/episodes/downloads
Interesting discussion in todays podcast -
They want to reduce/broaden the peak not supress it completely and because most people who catch it only have mild symptoms they want to build herd immunity so more people are immune to the disease and reduce transmission at the same time protecting those most vulnerable.
Q - Would be a good idea for the disease to be spread quite widely now rather than later.
A - What we don't want is everyone getting it in a short period of time so we swamp the NHS, that is the flattening of the peak, you cannot stop it so we should end up with a broader peak during which time more people will get immunity, this is likely to become an annual virus.
Interesting discussion in todays podcast -
They want to reduce/broaden the peak not supress it completely and because most people who catch it only have mild symptoms they want to build herd immunity so more people are immune to the disease and reduce transmission at the same time protecting those most vulnerable.
Q - Would be a good idea for the disease to be spread quite widely now rather than later.
A - What we don't want is everyone getting it in a short period of time so we swamp the NHS, that is the flattening of the peak, you cannot stop it so we should end up with a broader peak during which time more people will get immunity, this is likely to become an annual virus.
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I think Jeremy Hunt as a bone to pick with Boris and his statements maybe politically motivated . I believe that nobody knows what the right plan of action is and only hindsight will tell whether we got it right or the ones who locked everything down more or less straight away did. if people do follow the advise of self isolating it would improve the situation IMO but I work in a supermarket and I can tell you that plenty of people who are frequenting the supermarket should not be there if they were following the advise, they are coughing, wiping their noses etc but they are too bothered in panic buying toilet rolls etc as if it is a badge of pride they can tell their friends and family I've got 48 toilet rolls and 6 bottle of hand sanitiser.
Things are getting serious here in Spain. The president has just declared a State of Alarm. Schools, Unis, shops, restaurants are getting closed in Madrid. Where I live just north of there, schools and unis have been shut, a few bars have closed but of their own free will not because local govt have told them to. Luckily people have finally started to take it seriously because up until yesterday people were going around (coughing and spluttering) as if nothing was happening. It's all a bit surreal but hopefully some drastic measures will slow the spread down!
Interesting age stats from china.
Yes up until 1pm this afternoon believe it or not but now all gone so same as everybody else now. Why was you thinking of getting a bus trip up?You have toilet roll and hand sanitiser in supermarkets in Castleford?
No, i know where there is a supply if i get desperate.
We have dropped sterling in Yorkshire and Toilet rolls are now the only accepted currency
Winterbournebrewery
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You ain’t seen nothing yet guys. Prepare.
All we can do is follow the guidelines and hope China yesterday reported its lowest number of new cases.
On March 12, the global death toll has surpassed 4,600 with infections exceeding 126,100 cases. China reported 15 new cases, its lowest number since the daily reporting on infections began seven weeks ago.
On March 12, the global death toll has surpassed 4,600 with infections exceeding 126,100 cases. China reported 15 new cases, its lowest number since the daily reporting on infections began seven weeks ago.
Cheshire Cat
Landlord.
That’s if you believe them, lots of reports of people being shut down for speaking out
I said something similar earlier in the thread i guess we will soon find out if they are lying when the likes of Italy have had the virus as long as China.
