Ukraine: Russia has launched 'full-scale invasion'

[Omega]

That is where we have to draw the line we cannot get directly involved with troops on the ground or we will be heading for WW3

This is the problem - even sending troops, even with equipment, is unlikely to alter the situation because **** Can did not even sent consripts to the war yet, he keeps stockpiling on modern weapons by not sending the best to the war, except for testing, upgraded his nuclear arsenal, and sent only about a third his army into the combat. We all know that Zelenski lacks manpower though he recently claimed he lost 31k people dead (don't think he is liying, only using different calculations that allows him to lower the number vs conventional way) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68397525
On top of it, how can you give what Zelenski needs if Germany left only 20k high explosive shells in the stock? This can be consumed in half a day https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...sive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19/ . Denmark sent its entire artillery park to Ukraine and this did not even make a dent https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/denmark-will-send-its-entire-artillery-to-ukraine/ . And, smilar to NATO, **** Can puts effective pressure on Soviet weaponry operators so that they do not sell Warsaw Pact ammunition and weaponry to the USA, so you cannot buy ammunition or weapons on the world market https://www.fruitnet.com/eurofruit/russia-lifts-ban-on-ecuadorean-bananas/258658.article . High energy costs means that NATO buys an artillery round for $3-8k, while **** Can buy equal one for less than $40 from North Korea
Unfortunately, I do not see how the current status quo can be shifted
We personally will get underfunded NHS, education, roads etc, but get nothing from the gains - gains will be pocketed by very selected individuals (I already asked my pension fund to buy shared of US companies that produce weapons, so I do what I say)

 

[pilgrimhudd]

Can't find the story now but article I read yesterday said that Russia have lost more tanks than they started with. They are rolling out museum piece ifv's and in one video they are shown being driven to the front in golf carts. Apparently they can only make 30 ifv's a year. Give the Ukraine modern vehicles and even with their manpower issues they could probably win back much of their territory. This would have been a bit easier for them had we given them what they wanted before the 'spring offensive'.

 

[Omega]

Can't find the story now but article I read yesterday said that Russia have lost more tanks than they started with. They are rolling out museum piece ifv's and in one video they are shown being driven to the front in golf carts. Apparently they can only make 30 ifv's a year. Give the Ukraine modern vehicles and even with their manpower issues they could probably win back much of their territory. This would have been a bit easier for them had we given them what they wanted before the 'spring offensive'.

Here is that article. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lost-more-tanks-than-before-ukraine-war-iiss-2024-2?amp
However, it is again how you calculate losses - 3000 counts knocked out tanks, half of Leopard-2 were knocked out by the end of autumn, but actual write offs are often 1 in 6.
Russia can produce IFV for $50k - they take old BMP-2 from storage, replace the turret and worn out rubber and off you go. So, if a BMP is burnt down completely (it happens often) and Zelenski troops spent 2 Javelins without killing a tin’s soldier, only destroyed the vehicle, then Zelenski lost financially as two Javelin missiles cost more than one BMP. And tin seem to have deeper pocket
Here is an article about production of BMP-3 , but this is not what tin’s generals recommend as they can get 10 BMP-2s for the price of one BMP-3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...hicles-in-two-or-three-years/?sh=6f6ee85f63f6
Bear in mind - Germany buy new IFVs for $30m! Each! tin can get 600(!) BMP-2 for this money https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-army-vehicles-15-bln-euro-source-2023-05-05/

 

[Omega]

Another interesting article - drones cannot replace artillery…https://apple.news/Avdd7gOxYSdS37VHUrOK2fQ

 

[pilgrimhudd]

Here is that article. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lost-more-tanks-than-before-ukraine-war-iiss-2024-2?amp
However, it is again how you calculate losses - 3000 counts knocked out tanks, half of Leopard-2 were knocked out by the end of autumn, but actual write offs are often 1 in 6.
Russia can produce IFV for $50k - they take old BMP-2 from storage, replace the turret and worn out rubber and off you go. So, if a BMP is burnt down completely (it happens often) and Zelenski troops spent 2 Javelins without killing a tin’s soldier, only destroyed the vehicle, then Zelenski lost financially as two Javelin missiles cost more than one BMP. And tin seem to have deeper pocket
Here is an article about production of BMP-3 , but this is not what tin’s generals recommend as they can get 10 BMP-2s for the price of one BMP-3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...hicles-in-two-or-three-years/?sh=6f6ee85f63f6
Bear in mind - Germany buy new IFVs for $30m! Each! tin can get 600(!) BMP-2 for this money https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-army-vehicles-15-bln-euro-source-2023-05-05/

Yes the forbes one was the article.

 

[pilgrimhudd]

I can sympathise with the Ukrainian view that the west is drip feeding them gear to keep them in the fight and not to win.

 

[Erik The Anglophile]

Here is that article. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lost-more-tanks-than-before-ukraine-war-iiss-2024-2?amp
However, it is again how you calculate losses - 3000 counts knocked out tanks, half of Leopard-2 were knocked out by the end of autumn, but actual write offs are often 1 in 6.
Russia can produce IFV for $50k - they take old BMP-2 from storage, replace the turret and worn out rubber and off you go. So, if a BMP is burnt down completely (it happens often) and Zelenski troops spent 2 Javelins without killing a tin’s soldier, only destroyed the vehicle, then Zelenski lost financially as two Javelin missiles cost more than one BMP. And tin seem to have deeper pocket
Here is an article about production of BMP-3 , but this is not what tin’s generals recommend as they can get 10 BMP-2s for the price of one BMP-3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...hicles-in-two-or-three-years/?sh=6f6ee85f63f6
Bear in mind - Germany buy new IFVs for $30m! Each! tin can get 600(!) BMP-2 for this money https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-army-vehicles-15-bln-euro-source-2023-05-05/

The main drawback for the bmp vehicles are that they are death traps, a hit with any explosive weapon is most often fatal for most of the crew and infantry squad inside because it's propensity for ammunition detonations and internal fuel fires...

 

[Bosch]

Unless Ukraine can receive funding from the US, the prospects look bleak.
If Ukraine falls tensions in the east will be very tense.

I really fear the consequences if trump manages to win the next US election.

 

[Omega]

Unless Ukraine can receive funding from the US, the prospects look bleak.
If Ukraine falls tensions in the east will be very tense.

I really fear the consequences if trump manages to win the next US election.

I have a bizzare idea - Trump may offer tin joining NATO. He promised to finish the war in Ukraine in a day and this resolves nearly all issues. And USA gains a strong ally against China, this is the main threat now... This also paves the way for tin to retire from politics in grace. Seriously - if we used to cooperate and still cooperate with many canibal and corrupt regimes, then why can we not cooperate with tin? Especially when Russia will open up for us so many natural resources. Yes, this will be a special condition for Russia, but when they can disarm us and slow down our manufacturing because of sky high energy prices we have to acknowledge this and actto the best of our interests
Churchill shaked hand of Stalin even though he despised USSR so much that wanted to start Operation Unthinkable...

 

[Omega]

The main drawback for the bmp vehicles are that they are death traps, a hit with any explosive weapon is most often fatal for most of the crew and infantry squad inside because it's propensity for ammunition detonations and internal fuel fires...

BMP-1 and 2 are quite old and cannot take an explosion of 152mm within 10 metres. However, when 600 BMP-2 cost as much as one German Puma, the answer is pretty obvious. War economy sets own rules

 

[Omega]

A new turn of events… Ukraine is likely to get artillery shells soon
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...o-kill-more-russians-faster/?sh=6f6ba05f543d#

 

[Bjorn Toulouse]

@ Omega, that is the most positive article I have read in months. The reports I have been reading point to low moral due to lack of ammunition. The Ukrainians have (from what I have been reading) using drones and missiles to plug the gap in lack of artillery shells. Nothing sadder than a bradley heading away from a battlefield because it has no ammo. The leopards that were lost were lost mostly to mines. (As a result in NATO tactics). It was the west that paused the Ukrainian counter offensive when they wanted to push to Crimea. This allowed the russians to build defensive lines. Crimea, to me is the key. They need to blow that bridge. Unfortunately easier said than done. Even when they get the F16s they need something to be able to fire. Hence the wish for Taurus Missiles that Germany just wont give them.
On another front Good to see Finland and Poland getting on a war footing. I suppose Medvedev's map gave them a nudge

Quite impressed with France over the last few weeks.

 

[Rodcx500z]

This is bloody ridicules they are getting their energy infrastructure bombed daily and the feckin yanks wants this https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...S&cvid=a132edf2dd804e14a0edf1e3cacf0852&ei=34

 

[Rodcx500z]

Mean while Russia is doing this https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...S&cvid=a132edf2dd804e14a0edf1e3cacf0852&ei=66

 

[Omega]

I suspected that tin would blame Ukraine for Moscow terror attack. However, this automatically places the blame on the UK and the USA as sponsors of terrorism
Of course, nobody has enough evidence to prove who really was behind the attack as false flag attack is possible. There is no evidence the captured terrorists were actually the ones who attacked
Nevertheless, get ready for nuclear strike - tin warned us that he will use nuclear weapons if he starts fighting NATO, he is unlikely to back off as USA usually interprets de-escalation as a sign of weakness and, in contrast, US puts further pressure if another side starts backing off as they did with Cuba, Iraq, Vietnam. This can go only one way - direct conflict with NATO and then exchange of nuclear strikes. We never were so close to nuclear war

 

[Rodcx500z]

This would be interesting if it happens https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...r-ukraine-effectiveness-uncertain/ar-BB1lzdXT