Ukraine: Russia has launched 'full-scale invasion'

[Chippy_Tea]

Disagree with this.

It was what the experts on the subject were saying at the time the country is huge they couldn't stop the Ukrainians from fighting to take it back and there was no way they were ever going to accept a Putin puppet as leader.

Considering the amount of civilian casualties so far I can't see how the Ukrainians would agree to a partition of their country

This backs up my comment above, they will never let Putin have the whole country but as for most of them who have left there is nothing to go back to they may accept some kind of deal to stop the bloodshed.

 

[Eskimo John]

Peace will come to Ukraine eventually but it is hard to see how at the moment. That peace must be acceptable to the politicians but also the Ukrainian people , the latter will not forget this outrage for generations.
What we will have from this war is an isolated Russia with a international pariah for a leader. Putin has shown his true face and will never be trusted or welcome in the west as long as he lives.
Russia will be lesser and its people will suffer as a result. There will be no winners in this war.

 

[Brianbrewed]

It was what the experts on the subject were saying at the time

I'm obviously reading different experts.

for most of them who have left there is nothing to go back to they may accept some kind of deal to stop the bloodshed.

The people who have left are mostly women & children. Most men of fighting age have remained (some not through choice.
Wars come to a negotiated end when one side comes to the conclusion it can no longer win.

Russia will use the current peacetalks to stall while it reconstitutes it military so it launch another campaign in the summer (in my opinion).

Ukraine cannot allow Russian forces to occupy swathes of territory around Kyiv or to cut it off from the Black Sea.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I'm obviously reading different experts.

Obviously.

 

[Nicks90]

Russias 'professional' army has been found horribly poor and has been badly blooded.
So much so Russia has now admitted it won't be launching any new offensives against Kiev. That's because they have realised the don't have any chance of actually taking it.
Ukraines army is getting stronger with more and more volunteers having completed their (very basic) training.

This leads to an interesting development. Russia is now keen on peace talks - Turkey - but I reckon Ukraine will drag it out and concentrate on regaining ground lost in the first 2 weeks, so that the amount of territory they are 'negotiating over' is smaller and smaller, giving less bargaining power to Russia.
Yes Russia has another 700k troops they could call in, but they are All conscripts and their performance would be orders of magnitude worse than what they have managed so far.... Ie catastrophic.

I reckon Ukraine will keep pushing until they have retaken pretty much everything they lost and negotiate a truce based on neutrality and external security.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Summary

1. Russia will "drastically reduce combat operations" around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, its deputy defence minister says
2. But US President Joe Biden says "let's see" what happens on the ground
3. UK PM Boris Johnson also urges caution - saying he will judge Russia by its actions, not words
4. The mayor of Chernihiv says "time will tell" if the Russians stick to their word
5. And a Russian negotiator warns the de-escalation is "not a ceasefire"
6. A US official says some Russian troops are leaving Kyiv - but will wait to see if it's meaningful

 

[Dutto]

"Have you got your gun with you Watson?" "Yes Holmes of course." wrote Conan Doyle over 100 years ago!

Why? Watson had served in Afghanistan. The British Raj couldn't quell Afghanistan, neither could Russia and neither could the USA/British coalition over 100 years later!

Winston Churchill wrote, “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”: I think Mr Putin is learning the hard way!

 

[moto748]

I haven't been following this thread closely, but isn't it the case that Russia will nibble away, and hope to recoup the Russian-speaking areas in the East as a minimum to avoid losing face, whilst accepting that Ukraine will carry on more or less as an independent country?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[scomet]

I haven't been following this thread closely, but isn't it the case that Russia will nibble away, and hope to recoup the Russian-speaking areas in the East as a minimum to avoid losing face, whilst accepting that Ukraine will carry on more or less as an independent country?

'Puck Futins' stated objective is to rebuild the former USSR with him as its Emperor meanwhile swindling it out of all its wealth. Sounds similar to most Empires over the ages! while killing off a few million Vassals on the way. What you dont hear much about are the hundreds of leased civilian airliners Putin has stolen from the West (750?) I know they have halted oil shipments but what about the gas? without that a lot of people are going to freeze or starve :-{ + I think Bidens speech on the International Stage in Poland was a disgrace he could barely walk from the lectern without falling over. Did you see yesterday the Americans were doing B52 flights close to the Russian border using 'pre-strike' flight manoeuvres with their transponders off - S*its getting Serious…

 

[moto748]

He's still a big improvement on the guy who needed two hands to hold a glass of water. Meanwhile, if it wasn't obvious before, the West needs to wean itself off reliance on fossil fuels, and sharpish.

 

[Brianbrewed]

Institute for the Study of War do great analysis of the situation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1

 

[An Ankoù]

Who reckons Putin's got a Z cars fixation?
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=z+...i=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wL1HnDGTAK8

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Hardly any coverage now on the main news channels this is what they should be showing

Bodies of civilians with their hand tied behind their backs (not for the feint hearted)

 

[Brianbrewed]

Interesting analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5
Apparently Ukraine intellignence have claimed that one of the units involved in the war crimes in Bucha have been deployed in the east, in the hope that perpertators/witnesses to attrocities would be killed in the fighting.


The excellend Robert Evans (the man that produces the excellent podcast "Behind the Bastards") has an excellent interview with an analysts.
Interesting parallels with the Russian strategy in Syria and Ukraine.

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119...717896/episode/an-update-on-ukraine-95100281/

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Some of the videos doing the rounds on YouTube showing civilians tied up and slaughtered are awful the problem is the Russian people are not seeing what we see and hear.

 

[Brianbrewed]

the problem is the Russian people are not seeing what we see and hear.

The problem is the Russian people aren't believing the evidence.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/04/04/russias-bucha-facts-versus-the-evidence/