Hop shortage?

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...beer-cost-more-and-taste-worse-say-scientistsCame across this in the Guardian yesterday. It's complete tosh in my opinion and the widest of wild speculation based on nothing whatsoever. There must be nothing happening in the word if this is what passes for journalism.
I shan't be worrying, but I bet a few of our more "greedy" suppliers jump on the bandwagon for a price hike.
 
Been a few reports kicking around this morning. Scaremongering or fact?

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/alcohol...-impact-on-global-hop-harvests/683886.article
I'll be scouring the forum for hop growing techniques.
I think hops in Falkirk might by at the edge of viability because of the shortness of the season. Some varieties might be more suited than others. That would be a good place to start researching. Otherwise, they're quite easy to grow. On the other hand, as things warm up, it might be perfect.
 
I saw something about 18 months ago predicting the a shortage of hops based purely on the massive increased demand due to all the micro breweries and massive explosion of home brewers. Simple mismatch of supply and demand. But prices have already gone up, I assume because of the aftermath of COVID and the increase in energy prices, and no doubt will continue to rise as a supply shortage bites.
 
"Hop-heavy beers such as pale ales and IPAs could become a thing of the past"

Music to my ears. Bring back beers with something more than hop aroma. Craft beer is so tedious at the moment.
There is a lot of samey-ness out there but that's a consequence of jumping on the band wagon and the accountants making decisions. I do remember when lager was genuinely good before big money diluted the offering.

A brewery (can't remember which) said their brew was a sour fruited beer just to get on the sour bandwagon. nope it was a fruity ipa it wasn't even tart.

I'll grant you that there is a load of cr4p drivel going on at present, we as brewers should be able to (generally) dodge the tsunami of 💩.

as in I know I can relay on vault city and holy goat to do a cracking sour, polly's surprised me with their sour it was well impressive.
 
It's such a rubbish article that I'm surprised anyone here is giving it any credence.

Global warming is changing the quality and taste of beer, scientists have warned. (No they haven't, it's quantity- see below)
A new study reveals that the quantity of European hops, which gives beer its distinctive bitter taste, is declining.

Hops, .... They are added before the boiling process to add bitterness, but can also be added afterwards to change the overall flavour. (Hops never get boiled, then)

The scientists also found the alpha bitter acids of the hops - which influence the beer flavour The scientists also found the alpha bitter acids of the hops - which influence the beer flavour (alpha bittter acids)

The writer doesn't know what she's talking about and is certainly not able to to interpret the paper she's citing.
Re-read the whole article again: mainly about climate change data, previous price rises, the importance of beer... but very little, except perhaps and maybe, about hops.

It's complete tosh, but expect an unjustified and unjustifiable price rise on the strength of it.
 
Nice one @Sadfield. So now we know what the BBC writer is banging on about (even if she doesn't) In fact the Guardian article linked earlier specifically mentions the traditional German hop-growing areas without referring to landrace varieties. Bravo. We've always known that low alpha varieties vary massively from year to year. They always have, which goes some way to explaining the rise of more reliable, "neutral", bittering hops like H. Magnum.
It's all about industrial process and consistency of product. One batch of a particular mass-produced German or Czech lager has to taste exactly the same as another, batch after batch, year after year.
Guess what? Barthhaas are offering courses to help industrial brewers do just this.
The sensationalist articles by ignorant writers in the the publications above do little to inform and are likely to stimulate price hikes, especially in the homebrew sector, even among varieties which are much more resistant to climatic variation.
Moral of the story: if you're drinking lager, a slug of lime cordial works wonders!
 
Climate change might mean I can go on holiday in the UK and leave the goretex,wellies and umbrellas at home...ah,no...its not THAT kind of change...but I bet some other tax will be invented to cover it.
I have virtually stopped watching the news,especially BBC and the only newspapers I have are begged off idiots who buy them and they are used to light the log burner..
 
Weird, I've not paid anything.

Hop Harvest 2023: Inching Toward Equilibrium​

While the numbers are far from final, there were modest steps toward rebalancing the market for U.S. aroma hops. Centennial and Simcoe had a rough year, while rain helped Germany and Czechia avoid a second consecutive disastrous harvest.
In the Yakima Valley, harvest started early this year. It started late in Germany. In Oregon’s Willamette Valley, across from the Benedictine Brewery at Mount Angel Abbey, a field that previously produced Simcoe hops sat empty—just several among 5,000-plus Pacific Northwest acres that were idled in 2023. Blame the weather. Blame an out-of-balance hop market.

Every harvest, events occur to add a bit of drama and knock things briefly out of sync—such the 24 acres of Cascade hops at Goschie Farms in Oregon taken down by heavy rain. (It took two crews four days to salvage the hops while minimizing the damage; the night crew worked days, and workers used forklifts to raise trellises, sometimes cut the bines by hand.)

Yet by the time most brewers arrived to select hops, drink fresh-hop beers, and ask what’s new, not much looked different.
[PAYWALL]

Wanna Bet?​

In 19th century England, those engaged in hop commerce could hedge their positions by betting on the annual yield. The hop duty provided the information needed. In The Brewing Industry in England 1700–1830, Peter Mathias wrote, “Periodicals carried regular reports of these yields, and odds were quoted in every paper through hop growing and hop marketing regions, over which large amounts of money changed hands.”

In August, the USDA forecast that farmers in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington would harvest 104 million pounds of hops this year—2 percent more than last year, even though growers reduced acreage by 8 percent. The Brewing Industry Guide surveyed 11 members of the hop trade in those three states; 10 said they would have taken the “under.”

Does that mean brewers should be concerned about getting the hops they want? With a few exceptions—most notably Centennial—no, it doesn’t. The apparently contradictory numbers—fewer acres, but more hops?—result from measures taken to rebalance supply and demand.

To recap: In January 2023, Alex Barth, then CEO of John I. Haas, estimated that the American hop industry has 35 to 40 million pounds of excess inventory. He called on farmers to reduce the number of acres strung for harvest by 10,000.

Instead, they cut only 5,067 in total, although acreage of hops valued for their aroma shrank by more than 7,500, and those were the hops Barth was talking about. Farmers added acres of high-alpha hops, and those yield more pounds per acre. The USDA forecast, based on average yield of 1,886 pounds per acre, reflects that. In 2022, the average yield of 1,674 was the lowest since 1998.

The Numbers to Know​

In mid-December, the USDA is expected to publish pounds produced of each variety this year. Farmers were harvesting less of the most popular aroma varieties, particularly Citra and Mosaic, than in 2022—and how much less will help determine how quickly the market returns to balance. The consensus is that more reduction in some varieties will be necessary in 2024.

Farmers harvested about 17 million pounds of Citra in 2022. Although they strung 27 percent fewer acres in 2023, it’s unlikely that production will drop that much (to 12.4 million pounds); yield was atypically low in 2022. Assuming average yield in 2023, there would be 13.4 million pounds of Citra. For Mosaic: There was 20 percent reduction in acres, and assuming average yield, there would be 10.4 million pounds.

Similar math for Azacca, Cashmere, Comet, El Dorado, Idaho 7, and Strata—acreage of each was reduced by about 20 percent or more—will be at the center of decision-making about how much gets strung for harvest in 2024.

It’s not easy for the industry to manage a soft landing in any particular variety. For instance, farmers strung 5 percent fewer acres of Simcoe this year (which is why the field across from the Benedictine Brewery was empty). As with Centennial, the “early bloom” that resulted from an unusually cold spring afflicted Simcoe this year. Brewers without contracts—which would have signaled their interest in brewing with quality Simcoe—may find it hard to source as the 2024 brewing season arrives.

And Then There’s Centennial​

Tim Sattler, owner of Yakima Quality Hops, motions toward a truck outside his office window during the first week of September; he explains that 11 bales of Centennial hops on the bed are headed back to where they were grown. The farm had accidentally delivered 2,200 extra pounds and did not have them to spare.

As reported earlier, “early bloom” severely impacted Centennial in many growing regions. In some cases, plants did not reach the wire, and growers reported getting three or four bales to an acre. In recent years in Washington, Centennial has yielded seven to eight bales per acre.

In addition, brewers agree that the aromas in many lots are not as bright as expected from Centennial. That may be because aroma was affected by “split bloom,” which often accompanies early bloom.

Understand that what appears to be one bine climbing a string in a hop field may be made up to as many as six. What typically happens, says Eric Desmarais at CLS Farms, is that the more advanced bines grow too tall before the longest day of the year, and they start flowering. “But the shorter [bines] stay vegetative and are on a more typical flowering schedule ... and many times flower at the correct or near-correct time.” Different maturity times make it difficult to find the sweet spot for aroma in choosing when to harvest.

In 2022, growers in Oregon and Washington produced 3.6 million pounds of Centennial. They strung 4.6 percent more acres this year, but if yield is down by one-third, the result will be down by more than a million pounds. At least one large brewery with a substantial contract sent representatives to the Yakima Valley in June to make sure it would get its full allotment of hops in 2023. Brewers without contracts may want to be proactive.

Thank Goodness for the Rain, Except When ...​

Germany and Czechia avoided a second straight disastrous harvest when rains arrived in late July and August after two hot, dry months.

The official crop estimate for Germany is 41,100 metric tons—20 percent more than the historically weak 2022 crop, but still 10 percent below an average crop. Because harvest started later than usual, there was not yet an estimate of alpha acids as we went to press; they appear to be slightly below average. Although yields are down, the late rain ensured proper cone development. Simply put, there are not as many cones as growers would like, but the quality is good.
Within Germany, breweries have sufficient inventories to ensure they will not be short of hops. Brewers outside of Germany may not be as lucky.

Precipitation in Czechia was 71 percent below normal in July, before August thunderstorms lifted total precipitation for the year to 94 percent of normal. Despite temperatures that were 5 percent above average in August, growers predicted a slightly above-average harvest. However, it appears that the alpha-acid content of Saaz will be below average, as it was in 2022.

In Slovenia, thunderstorms in August caused the Savinja River to overflow, flooding many hop fields. Despite two heat waves, several hailstorms, and the flooding, analysts expected an average crop of 2,500 to 2,600 metric tons—almost all aroma hops. It was a particularly good season for Savinjski Golding, with Bobek, Celeia (Styrian Golding), Dragon, Wolf, and Eagle all faring well.

Why Bother?​

“Climate change has arrived in German hop growing, and we need to adapt our system to it,” says a news release about Germany’s 2023 harvest. It advocates for using new drought-tolerant varieties as well as irrigation.

Florian Seitz, whose family began growing hops in 1890, long ago installed irrigation on the Seitz Farm. He says the new varieties are an important part of the German hop-growing future. However, he’s not ready to abandon older varieties.

“One thing about the Hallertau growing area is we produce the best hops for lager beers,” he says. “If we can’t grow these varieties that make the best lager beers, I’m not sure if we will be a leading grower in the world of hops any more.

“Let’s see how things develop. I don’t think the old varieties like Hersbrucker, Spalt Select, Perle, [and] Tradition are lost,” he says. “We will have to adapt, we will have to replant. … We should keep a focus on producing the finest aroma varieties for specialty breweries all over the world.”

Centennial isn’t nearly as old as Hersbrucker, but it is similar in more than one way. It is more difficult and expensive to grow than other cultivars, and it is a foundational hop for American craft breweries. For Centennial, says Kevin Riel at Double R at Hop Ranches, “[it] has never been easy to find an even keel.” However, it’s worth the trouble because many brewers consider it special.

What he does not add is that because it comes from the public breeding program, brewers expect to pay less for it than privately developed hops. In fact, Centennial is an example of a hop that may cost farmers more to grow than private hops, even when they pay a royalty fee.
 
That's a fascinating article, @Sadfield , I've got half a dozen hop bines which usually yield around 120 - 150 g of hops per bine. Nothing to write home about, but just right for a single batch each of green-hopped beer. This year, I had a massive (x3 or x4) crop of fuggle and cascade. Next to nothing on the goldings and challenger (enough to mix together for a batch) and zilch on the centennial.
We live in interesting times. I might dig up the roots this winter and put them a bit further apart, but that;s another matter.
 
Within Germany, breweries have sufficient inventories to ensure they will not be short of hops. Brewers outside of Germany may not be as lucky.
That's the rub - in short harvests growers will look after the locals and foreigners will have to do without. And that is already happening - supposedly the reformulation of Sam Adams was driven by a lack of the European hops it used previously, and I've heard of commercial brewers here giving up on Saaz after they got a batch that was only 1% alpha.

The paper we're talking about is here :
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41474-5
This article gives a bit more colour from on the ground in Spalt :
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/12/world/europe/beer-taste-hops-climate-change.html
And yes it is about quality as well as quantity - here's some samples from 2022 of (clockwise from top-left) Melon, Mittelfruh, Polaris and Blanc
1697104824434.png


Whilst Centennial has been the most high-profile victim of split flowering, I've previously posted this pic of a second flush of flowers on my Early Bird at home - picking by hand you can work round it but in commercial farming you can't, so you end up with a mix of ripe cones and not.
1697105779616.png


And in general the early-picking UK varieties were really hit by that autumnal spell in late August, they're perhaps the least flavourful since at least 2016. The later ones were somewhat rescued by that heatwave in early September, but it compressed the ripening period making it hard for farmers to pick at the right time. I found with mine that they weren't quite ready one weekend, but were definitely a bit garlicy the following weekend.

Obviously you've got to distinguish long-term climate trends from just the random bad years of normal variation in weather - but the way those long-term trends manifest is that the bad years happen more frequently, and that's what causes the problem as that NY Times article makes clear, farmers are used to surviving one bad year but it gets difficult if you get two back to back, or three in five years.

You already have Barth-Haas advising brewers not to create new beers with German landraces as they just can't guarantee that they will be available in future; meanwhile there are perhaps opportunities for UK growers to supply more hops, for lagers in particular.
 
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