In the Yakima Valley, harvest started early this year. It started late in Germany. In Oregon’s Willamette Valley, across from the Benedictine Brewery at Mount Angel Abbey, a field that previously produced Simcoe hops sat empty—just several among 5,000-plus Pacific Northwest acres that were idled in 2023. Blame the weather. Blame an out-of-balance hop market.
Every harvest, events occur to add a bit of drama and knock things briefly out of sync—such the 24 acres of Cascade hops at Goschie Farms in Oregon taken down by heavy rain. (It took two crews four days to salvage the hops while minimizing the damage; the night crew worked days, and workers used forklifts to raise trellises, sometimes cut the bines by hand.)
Yet by the time most brewers arrived to select hops, drink fresh-hop beers, and ask what’s new, not much looked different.
[PAYWALL]
Wanna Bet?
In 19th century England, those engaged in hop commerce could hedge their positions by betting on the annual yield. The hop duty provided the information needed. In The Brewing Industry in England 1700–1830, Peter Mathias wrote, “Periodicals carried regular reports of these yields, and odds were quoted in every paper through hop growing and hop marketing regions, over which large amounts of money changed hands.”
In August, the USDA forecast that farmers in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington would harvest 104 million pounds of hops this year—2 percent more than last year, even though growers reduced acreage by 8 percent. The Brewing Industry Guide surveyed 11 members of the hop trade in those three states; 10 said they would have taken the “under.”
Does that mean brewers should be concerned about getting the hops they want? With a few exceptions—most notably Centennial—no, it doesn’t. The apparently contradictory numbers—fewer acres, but more hops?—result from measures taken to
rebalance supply and demand.
To recap: In January 2023, Alex Barth, then CEO of John I. Haas, estimated that the American hop industry has 35 to 40 million pounds of excess inventory. He called on farmers to reduce the number of acres strung for harvest by 10,000.
Instead, they cut only 5,067 in total, although acreage of hops valued for their aroma shrank by more than 7,500, and those were the hops Barth was talking about. Farmers added acres of high-alpha hops, and those yield more pounds per acre. The USDA forecast, based on average yield of 1,886 pounds per acre, reflects that. In 2022, the average yield of 1,674 was the lowest since 1998.
The Numbers to Know
In mid-December, the USDA is expected to publish pounds produced of each variety this year. Farmers were harvesting less of the most popular aroma varieties, particularly Citra and Mosaic, than in 2022—and how much less will help determine how quickly the market returns to balance. The consensus is that more reduction in some varieties will be necessary in 2024.
Farmers harvested about 17 million pounds of Citra in 2022. Although they strung 27 percent fewer acres in 2023, it’s unlikely that production will drop that much (to 12.4 million pounds); yield was atypically low in 2022. Assuming average yield in 2023, there would be 13.4 million pounds of Citra. For Mosaic: There was 20 percent reduction in acres, and assuming average yield, there would be 10.4 million pounds.
Similar math for Azacca, Cashmere, Comet, El Dorado, Idaho 7, and Strata—acreage of each was reduced by about 20 percent or more—will be at the center of decision-making about how much gets strung for harvest in 2024.
It’s not easy for the industry to manage a soft landing in any particular variety. For instance, farmers strung 5 percent fewer acres of Simcoe this year (which is why the field across from the Benedictine Brewery was empty). As with Centennial, the “early bloom” that resulted from an unusually cold spring afflicted Simcoe this year. Brewers without contracts—which would have signaled their interest in brewing with quality Simcoe—may find it hard to source as the 2024 brewing season arrives.
And Then There’s Centennial
Tim Sattler, owner of Yakima Quality Hops, motions toward a truck outside his office window during the first week of September; he explains that 11 bales of Centennial hops on the bed are headed back to where they were grown. The farm had accidentally delivered 2,200 extra pounds and did not have them to spare.
As
reported earlier, “early bloom” severely impacted Centennial in many growing regions. In some cases, plants did not reach the wire, and growers reported getting three or four bales to an acre. In recent years in Washington, Centennial has yielded seven to eight bales per acre.
In addition, brewers agree that the aromas in many lots are not as bright as expected from Centennial. That may be because aroma was affected by “split bloom,” which often accompanies early bloom.
Understand that what appears to be one bine climbing a string in a hop field may be made up to as many as six. What typically happens, says Eric Desmarais at CLS Farms, is that the more advanced bines grow too tall before the longest day of the year, and they start flowering. “But the shorter [bines] stay vegetative and are on a more typical flowering schedule ... and many times flower at the correct or near-correct time.” Different maturity times make it difficult to find the sweet spot for aroma in choosing when to harvest.
In 2022, growers in Oregon and Washington produced 3.6 million pounds of Centennial. They strung 4.6 percent more acres this year, but if yield is down by one-third, the result will be down by more than a million pounds. At least one large brewery with a substantial contract sent representatives to the Yakima Valley in June to make sure it would get its full allotment of hops in 2023. Brewers without contracts may want to be proactive.
Thank Goodness for the Rain, Except When ...
Germany and Czechia avoided a second straight disastrous harvest when rains arrived in late July and August after two hot, dry months.
The official crop estimate for Germany is 41,100 metric tons—20 percent more than the historically weak 2022 crop, but still 10 percent below an average crop. Because harvest started later than usual, there was not yet an estimate of alpha acids as we went to press; they appear to be slightly below average. Although yields are down, the late rain ensured proper cone development. Simply put, there are not as many cones as growers would like, but the quality is good.
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