The downfall of the Tory party.

[old dog new tricks]

Sorry if you feel the projections are unfounded yes local elections are not 100% accurate in relation to general elections do not dispute that at all. They are simply projections, as correctly stated they do not include Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

But the pollsters who are generally pretty close do use local elections as a indicator of voting trends amongst other measurables.

There is the perception that Labour will make massive gains in Scotland, do I think they will make gains yes, but from my previous roles working in intergovernmental relations there are large majority of voters in devolved areas, who have no interest in Westminster elections and do not vote or use a protest vote.

One thing that is very clear from the English local elections, is a large support for parties who have taken a strong approach to the Gaza crisis, this split the labour vote considerably.
Also the disconnect between UK Labour and Scottish Labour is very clear not only in policy but political values.

As the Tory's will now push the election as far back as possible there is a lot of ground to cover and things can change yet.

Nothing is decided yet

 

[pilgrimhudd]

Sorry if you feel the projections are unfounded yes local elections are not 100% accurate in relation to general elections do not dispute that at all. They are simply projections, as correctly stated they do not include Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

But the pollsters who are generally pretty close do use local elections as a indicator of voting trends amongst other measurables.

There is the perception that Labour will make massive gains in Scotland, do I think they will make gains yes, but from my previous roles working in intergovernmental relations there are large majority of voters in devolved areas, who have no interest in Westminster elections and do not vote or use a protest vote.

One thing that is very clear from the English local elections, is a large support for parties who have taken a strong approach to the Gaza crisis, this split the labour vote considerably.
Also the disconnect between UK Labour and Scottish Labour is very clear not only in policy but political values.

As the Tory's will now push the election as far back as possible there is a lot of ground to cover and things can change yet.

Nothing is decided yet

One thing I would say about that, is that there are lots of people like myself and my wife who may vote for different parties in the GE and local elections, I vote lib dem and my wife votes green in locals because there is a chance they might win where as we would both vote Labour in a GE as the Labour Party are the only party that will probably beat the tory. Especially now George Useless is going. I reckon the 'left vote' is generally more split by this than the centre right?

If the general election isn't going to be till November then I would have thought Gaza will have drifted away in the memory.

Sunak must be desperately hoping that something happens in the world where he can look like he's taking the lead on things.

 

[old dog new tricks]

One thing I would say about that, is that there are lots of people like myself and my wife who may vote for different parties in the GE and local elections, I vote lib dem and my wife votes green in locals because there is a chance they might win where as we would both vote Labour in a GE as the Labour Party are the only party that will probably beat the tory. Especially now George Useless is going. I reckon the 'left vote' is generally more split by this than the centre right?

If the general election isn't going to be till November then I would have thought Gaza will have drifted away in the memory.

Sunak must be desperately hoping that something happens in the world where he can look like he's taking the lead on things.

Yes very valid point the independent or s mm smaller parties receive much better rates in local elections as you correctly state that they can and do maje a difference.

Backs my argument for proportional representation to make every vote actually count

 

[pilgrimhudd]

Yes very valid point the independent or s mm smaller parties receive much better rates in local elections as you correctly state that they can and do maje a difference.

Backs my argument for proportional representation to make every vote actually count

Yes, definitely, very much pro PR.

 

[An Ankoù]

Yes, definitely, very much pro PR.

I'd like see Britain a People's Republic, too.

 

[JockyBrewer]

Yes very valid point the independent or s mm smaller parties receive much better rates in local elections as you correctly state that they can and do maje a difference.

Backs my argument for proportional representation to make every vote actually count

In my borough the council is controlled by the Residents Association, and has been since 1937.

They’re actually very good at everything apart from campaigning, where the other parties all send out leaflets attacking them, and then lose anyway.

The next GE is going to be a good one for independent candidates. In Epsom we have Gina Miller standing, although unless Labour and Lib Dems stand aside I can’t see her winning.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Sorry if you feel the projections are unfounded yes local elections are not 100% accurate in relation to general elections do not dispute that at all. They are simply projections, as correctly stated they do not include Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

No - this isn't the difference between a "projection" and reality, this is comparing apples and oranges. Which is why the hardcore election types are dismissing the extrapolation of PNS to a hung Parliament as "nonsensical", "very silly" or "irritating...for anyone who understands elections or maths". PNS has a specific use - to adjust for the fact that only a fraction of council seats are elected in any one year, to get a national figure that can be compared between different sets of local elections, adjusted for the makeup of the seats.

So for instance you will notice that this year was high skewed towards Manchester-ish. So imagine that in 2024 the overall outcome of the local elections was an 85:15 vote in favour of the Pale Beer party over the Dark Beer party. But the PNS would look at the map and adjust for the skew towards Manchester, and might project a 60:40 national PNS. And then you might look at 2023 when the overall count was 15:85 in favour of dark beer, but then (in this imaginary scenario) you see that the wards were skewed towards the West Midlands which explains why the PNS in 2023 was 65:35.

So even though the absolute votes have gone from 15:85 pale:dark in 2023 to 85:15 pale:dark in 2024, that does not mean there has been a huge swing from dark beer to pale beer since 2023, it just means that Brummies like their dark beers and Mancs like their pale beers, and you were just sampling a lot of the former in 2023 and the latter in 2024. In fact the PNS has swung from 65:35 to 60:40, an underlying swing across the country of 5% towards dark beers even as the raw results have apparently seen a 70% swing towards pale beer.

So that's what PNS is really good for, identifying underlying trends in local elections given that they cover different areas from year to year.

But PNS (and its predecessor NEV) are terrible for direct extrapolations to general elections as there's so many other factors at work and people just vote differently for Westminster. We saw it with the difference between local and by elections in Blackpool South, perhaps the most dramatic example is that in the local elections before 2001, Labour were trailing the Tories 30:38 on NEV (p34 of this), but then scored a landslide victory by 167 seats.

There is the perception that Labour will make massive gains in Scotland, do I think they will make gains yes, but from my previous roles working in intergovernmental relations there are large majority of voters in devolved areas, who have no interest in Westminster elections and do not vote or use a protest vote.

What matters is the change in such factors relative to the 2019 election. When in fact the turnout was slightly higher, at 68.1% in Scotland, than the UK average (67.3%)

One thing that is very clear from the English local elections, is a large support for parties who have taken a strong approach to the Gaza crisis, this split the labour vote considerably.

It's a factor, but one that's easy to overstate - Labour lost 30 seats out of ~1000 to independents, many but not all of whom were playing the Gaza card. And as above, people vote differently in local elections and when a government is at stake.

As the Tory's will now push the election as far back as possible there is a lot of ground to cover and things can change yet.

Nothing is decided yet

No - but history suggests that poll deficits of this magnitude are not overcome in 6 months.

I wouldn't want to be Starmer, he faces huge challenges with no easy answers, but he's 1/12 on with both Paddypower and Hills and I'd suggest that's about right, even generous.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Former Conservative MP Natalie Elphicke has defected to the Labour Party, saying the Tories "have become a byword for incompetence and division".
In a statement released just as PMQs was starting, the MP for Dover said the key factors for her decision were housing and border security.
She accused Rishi Sunak of "broken promises" and abandoning key pledges.
It is the second defection to Labour for Rishi Sunak in less than two weeks, after Dan Poulter also quit the Tories.

 

[Agentgonzo]

It is the second defection to Labour for Rishi Sunak in less than two weeks

I wonder how many of these are ideological changes and how many are about the MP keeping their job at the next general election

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I wonder how many of these are ideological changes and how many are about the MP keeping their job at the next general election

Its definitely a case of rats off a sinking ship.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Stu]

Its definitely a case of rats off a sinking ship.

If you do podcasts, the latest High Performance one with Arnie is very interesting.
Particularly the bit where he said that most politicians spend their entire political careers staying elected.

He had no interest in doing this - in fact, he became a politician because of agendas based on his experience and the things he felt he could change.
He had no expectation of making it past his first term. And yet he increased his popularity in his 2nd and has arguably had one of the biggest impacts in California in years.

I think had the rule about being ineligible by birth for being President, he would have had a decent run at it!
As far as Republicans go, I'd say he and Trump are at the complete opposite ends of the political spectrum.

 

[JockyBrewer]

I wonder how many of these are ideological changes and how many are about the MP keeping their job at the next general election

Well the timing seems like the latter, but to cross the divide is never straight forward.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Particularly the bit where he said that most politicians spend their entire political careers staying elected.

That's more true in the US, just because of the sheer amount of $$$$ they have to raise to stay competitive - for the Presidency it goes into billions, whereas in the UK parties are capped at about £35m for a national campaign (about £50k per seat).

Elphicke's timing is particularly unsubtle, the first PMQs after the disastrous local elections, in some ways I'm surprised Labour accepted her given her past views on things like the P&O workers. Apparently she's just seeing out the rest of this Parliament and won't stand at the next election, so Mike Tapp continues to be the Labour candidate.

 

[old dog new tricks]

I wonder how many of these are ideological changes and how many are about the MP keeping their job at the next general election

Very fair point is it genuine ideology or self preservation?

 

[Stu]

That's more true in the US, just because of the sheer amount of $$$$ they have to raise to stay competitive - for the Presidency it goes into billions, whereas in the UK parties are capped at about £35m for a national campaign (about £50k per seat).

Even so, the way that some of the Tory party in particular, have fed the gammon press getting them frothing about Prince Harry and illegal immigrants which have completely over shadowed more major issues that impact people on a day-to-day basis.

Things like the toilet of an economy, the NHS, fiscal drag and the number of people who are below the poverty threshold. The state of the roads. Our councils that are having to sell off their crown jewels just to stop going bankrupt (and those that don't have those, have done).

I don't see Labour offering any alternatives, but I genuinely don't believe that they could be any worse.

 

[foxy]

Even so, the way that some of the Tory party in particular, have fed the gammon press getting them frothing about Prince Harry and illegal immigrants which have completely over shadowed more major issues that impact people on a day-to-day basis.

Things like the toilet of an economy, the NHS, fiscal drag and the number of people who are below the poverty threshold. The state of the roads. Our councils that are having to sell off their crown jewels just to stop going bankrupt (and those that don't have those, have done).

I don't see Labour offering any alternatives, but I genuinely don't believe that they could be any worse.

While there is no strong leader in either of the major parties the economy is going further down the toilet. I read that the unions are already lobbying Starmer not to raise the pension age. The pension age needs to be raised, pensions mean-tested, businesses and the government need encouragement to invest in companies throughout the UK.
https://www.ippr.org/media-office/u...illion-pounds-or-30-elizabeth-lines-says-ippr
I believe that if there is a change in government after the election there won't be any change whatsoever in Britain's economic woes.

 

[old dog new tricks]

While there is no strong leader in either of the major parties the economy is going further down the toilet. I read that the unions are already lobbying Starmer not to raise the pension age. The pension age needs to be raised, pensions mean-tested, businesses and the government need encouragement to invest in companies throughout the UK.
https://www.ippr.org/media-office/u...illion-pounds-or-30-elizabeth-lines-says-ippr
I believe that if there is a change in government after the election there won't be any change whatsoever in Britain's economic woes.

not sure about that IF labour tap into the renewable energy market that could help the economy, simple things like unlinking electric prices to wholesale gas could make a huge difference to households and business IF we are able to generate more energy ourselves.

Been saying it for years small things like mandate all new builds domestic and commercial have a solar and battery install, remove the silly ban on onshore wind turbines, up here in Scotland they are making a difference just need to continue with the battery farms to store the energy for more efficient use on demand.

Not convinced the pension argument is fair people like myself have contributed for 30 years why should we be given a raw deal compared to our peers, non state pensions are already taxed.

We need decent levels of pay that make working an attractive option and move away form the outdated 9-5 model, many can still bring huge benefit working reduced or non standard hours for example, but simply for some its not worth it.

No saying slash benefits or pensions that drives us backwards and creates massive divides, but rather make rates of pay substantially better than any form of benefits.

We need huge investment in public services we all know that no silver bullet how its paid for tho, but the cancellation of large infrastructure projects does have a long term effect in reducing the economy that is proven fact. Look at Russia just now asides form its sanction dodging oil and gas sales, it has clicked into war footing for production of weapons, ammunition and large scale military equipment.

Put simply we need to be making things be it ammunition, renewable infrastructures or whatever, lets be blunt we have seen a rapid decline in industry and put all our eggs in one basket thinking that big banks and stock exchanges would keep us wealthy, its flawed model and needs resetting we are a consumer culture now, we need to start doing our own thing

 

[JockyBrewer]

not sure about that IF labour tap into the renewable energy market that could help the economy, simple things like unlinking electric prices to wholesale gas could make a huge difference to households and business IF we are able to generate more energy ourselves.

Been saying it for years small things like mandate all new builds domestic and commercial have a solar and battery install, remove the silly ban on onshore wind turbines, up here in Scotland they are making a difference just need to continue with the battery farms to store the energy for more efficient use on demand.

There definitely has to be a push back on NIMBYism, it's stifled our ability to build houses and other useful pieces of infrastructure.

Not convinced the pension argument is fair people like myself have contributed for 30 years why should we be given a raw deal compared to our peers, non state pensions are already taxed.

The problem is that we're living far longer than when the state pension was created, and as the population gets older there's not going to be enough people working to pay all the state pensions.

Longer term I think you could do something like say that from tomorrow any child born is not eligible for the state defined benefit pension, but instead they immediately get £5000 put into a SIPP that gets topped up by NI contributions over their life and they can manage if they wish.

 

[Stu]

There definitely has to be a push back on NIMBYism, it's stifled our ability to build houses and other useful pieces of infrastructure.

Definitely. That stupid law about wind turbines absolutely MUST be overturned.

Throughout the New Forest, we have massive pylons. They're hideous and obviously have lots of long wires coming off them.
But I understand why.

Personally, I'd much rather see lots of wind turbines.