Can a Conservative and DUP pact work?

[Chippy_Tea]

There MAY be trouble ahead :wink:

Can a Conservative and DUP pact possibly govern for the life of this Parliament? They face a long, precarious high wire act if they attempt to do so, and they - and any alternative alliance - will be beset by troubles and entanglements at every turn.

Armed with a combined majority of three MPs, their pact would also be bolstered by the absence of the seven Sinn Fein MPs who continue to refuse to take their seats, and probably by the support of the independent unionist, Lady Sylvia Hermon.

But those numbers assume all MPs toe the party line in every vote. And that looks unlikely.

Imagine you are Tory MPs Zac Goldsmith - with a majority of 45 votes - or Theresa Villiers - who has a majority of 353 - or one of the legion of other Conservatives who have just scraped in - often having seen apparently comfortable majorities dissolve.

Suppose you are asked to support a measure which could have constituency consequences, like a squeeze on school funding, or a hospital downgrade. It's easy for the opposition parties, they can oppose.

However, you face a choice between braving the wrath of the government whips, or providing your local opponents with a new stick with which to beat you.

Nobody knows what those particular individuals would do, when confronted by such a choice, but it is a fair bet that some Conservative MPs might be prepared to defy the whip - and it would only take a handful, fewer even than in the last Parliament.

The same problem applies to infrastructure mega-projects - can a government with such a small majority deliver the next phases of HS2 or Heathrow expansion?

DUP want 'pork'

Then we come to Brexit. This election was supposed to be about strengthening the prime minister against inimical anti-Brexit forces in Parliament. Yet she emerges far weaker.

I question whether the new government can cobble together a majority for any version of Brexit - hard, soft, poached, scrambled, or devilled with Tabasco sauce - without losing the support of some Conservative MPs, and potentially losing a Commons vote.

The DUP factor matters here.

Remember the DUP are a Northern Ireland party, with deep concerns about maintaining a "frictionless" border with the Republic of Ireland, which could complicate the ultimate deal, possibly dragging the government into a deal which could arouse the ire of Conservative Brexiteers, if it did not ditch the European Court of Justice, or if it involved unacceptable payments to the EU in return for market access.

The other aggravating factor about the DUP is its coldly transactional approach.

Of course they have a policy agenda - but they also want what the Americans call "pork". Extra funding for all things Northern Ireland, more powers for the NI Executive - if it can be reconstituted - localised tax concessions, you name it. And some of these things would have to come at the expense of English constituencies.

It is worth remembering that the last time a UK government was sustained by Northern Irish votes, it didn't end well.

James Callaghan's minority Labour government of the mid 1970s survived, hand to mouth, for years until Callaghan could no longer stomach the endless deal-making. He might have survived the famous 1979 Commons no confidence debate, if he'd been prepared to fund a gas pipeline to Northern Ireland, but he'd had enough.

Half way through the election campaign I was hearing that the government's chief whip, Gavin Williamson, had embarked on a tour to meet and mark the cards of the candidates who were expected to win in the predicted Tory landslide.

Most will not be arriving, and if he stays in post, his job will be the kind of extreme whipping last seen when Callaghan's legendary parliamentary ringmaster, Walter Harrison (the hero of James Graham's great play This House) ducked, dived, manoeuvred, cajoled and arm-twisted to keep the minority Labour government in power.

On one level it was one of the most brilliant whipping performances in Parliamentary history; on another the spectacle of endless wheeler-dealing may have worsened Labour's ultimate electoral crash, when the government finally fell.

Clock ticking

Now, Mr Williamson, or his successor, will have to hold the Tory factions together, possibly through a divisive leadership battle.

He will have to sooth ideological and Brexit divisions, and smooth the ruffled feathers of ministers who were said to be facing removal from the cabinet - as well as ex-ministers dropped when the prime minister took over.

An early test will be the appointments to her new government. Will unifying figures like the 1922 Committee Chairman Graham Brady be brought into the fold? Will dangerous luminaries of the David Cameron years - such as former chief whip Mark Harper - return to government. There are, at least, vacancies to fill.

If the government can dance with sufficient agility, it might be able to survive for a fair while. But there is a difference between survival and governing.

The Brexit clock is ticking, the economy needs attention, and the world is a dangerous place. Decisions are unavoidable, but getting them through the Commons may prove impossible.

And at some point another election may become unavoidable, too.

BBC

 

[trueblue]

F*cked comes to mind.

 

[Covrich]

And at some point another election may become unavoidable, too.

And most internet forums cried out in terror..

I am looking forward to The Gunge vs Elvisisbeer Sequel.

Do we really need another big political vote??

I bet the EU are laughing at us

 

[Chippy_Tea]

She called a pointless election intended to make her position stronger in the brexit talks and she has monumentally ****ed up, i bet the back stabbers are sharpening their knives as we speak.


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[Pavros]

It's not just Tories with miniscule majorities that it will affect, though. There are some Labour and SNP MPs who may face a similar dilemma of toe-ing the party line or voting for something that may help their constituents. I'm thinking about the SNP MP with a majority of 2 (essentially his Mum and Dad's votes!!).

Edit - thinking about it, they would probably just abstain rather than vote against their party line. Tories would have to obey the whip or the vote would go against the government. Or 'do an Abbott' and have a migraine on the day of the vote.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Totally agree...but who do you mean by the "back stabbers"

Members of here own party who didn't want a "remainer" to lead the party taking us out of the EU or her to break here promise and call an election which has now ended with them in a weaker position than they were before it.

 

[johnnyboy1965]

Members of here own party who didn't want a "remainer" to lead the party taking us out of the EU or her to break here promise and call an election which has now ended with them in a weaker position than they were before it.

Couldnt agree more, and now the rest of the EU will dictate, theyre terms, not ours

 

[johnnyboy1965]

Only 11 days to go before we send our elected PM into a ........
What the **** could possible go wrong.
The Heads of State of the rest of the EU are going to rip the **** out of her, leaving us to pick up the pieces. And th

 

[Covrich]

Well said and now back to the topic - Can a Conservative and DUP pact work?

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Like you said a few posts earlier I don't really know a lot about the DUP.

Maybe Tories can make it work for them without there being too much effect..

Otherwise we are ****ed.

 

[GhostShip]

Only 11 days to go before we send our elected PM into a ........
What the **** could possible go wrong.
The Heads of State of the rest of the EU are going to rip the **** out of her, leaving us to pick up the pieces. And th

Rubbish. They're losing their second largest benefactor. They actually need a deal far more than we do in order to continue to prop up those countries that are failing miserably under their misguided 'experiment'. If they continue to make stupid noises about huge payouts required before we leave, I hope the whole corrupt, supercilious, gravy train crashes.

 

[Lawrence22]

Well said and now back to the topic - Can a Conservative and DUP pact work?

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Short term probably, but long term it is unlikely. Ruth Davidson as a member of the LBGT community seems to be already questioning her parties decision and I believe other more progressive conservative will be smiling through gritted teeth. My guess would be a new Tory leader by September and another election likely.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Short term probably, but long term it is unlikely. Ruth Davidson as a member of the LBGT community seems to be already questioning her parties decision and I believe other more progressive conservative will be smiling through gritted teeth. My guess would be a new Tory leader by September and another election likely.

The majority of "experts" i have heard on 5live today have said it is highly likely we will have another election before 2020.

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[MyQul]

Short term probably, but long term it is unlikely. Ruth Davidson as a member of the LBGT community seems to be already questioning her parties decision and I believe other more progressive conservative will be smiling through gritted teeth. My guess would be a new Tory leader by September and another election likely.

I was wondering about that. Arent the DUP anti gay marriage and anti abortion? I bet as you say they'll be plenty of the more progressive Tories not like the sound of going into partnership with them. Ruth Davies is a bit of darling of the Torie party at the mo as she's brought a lot of 'tartan torie' votes so I bet she holds a bit more sway now, than previously to the election

 

[ElvisIsBeer]

DUP are a bit loopy - clear track record.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

DUP are a bit loopy - clear track record.

I think the Tories are so desperate to stay in power they would have got into bed with UKIP if they had had enough seats.

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[Lawrence22]

I was wondering about that. Arent the DUP anti gay marriage and anti abortion? I bet as you say they'll be plenty of the more progressive Tories not like the sound of going into partnership with them. Ruth Davies is a bit of darling of the Torie party at the mo as she's brought a lot of 'tartan torie' votes so I bet she holds a bit more sway now, than previously to the election

Yes opposed to gay marriage and abortion. Many senior members are prominent members of evangelical churches. Some are of the creationist view, some are climate change deniers. Much of their support though comes from working class communities here, so they aren't really a good fit with the Tories even though they are socially conservative.

 

[MyQul]

Yes opposed to gay marriage and abortion. Many senior members are prominent members of evangelical churches. Some are of the creationist view, some are climate change deniers. Much of their support though comes from working class communities here, so they aren't really a good fit with the Tories even though they are socially conservative.

They sound pretty exreme in a conservative type of way. Policians will do anything to cling onto power it seems

 

[Tau]

Most of the issues they oppose are already enshrined in law and laws are notriously hard to repeal (e.g have 4p in your pocket or you're considered a vagrant) and these aren't really part of brexit or planned upcomming legislation. They also have always supported or at least offered to assist the tory agenda, it is rare they actually attend any votes in westminster though, like all NI politicians.

 

[GlentoranMark]

I normally vote UUP but tactically voted DUP (East Belfast) to keep Alliance out.

DUP was formed by the Rev Ian Paisley who breathed fire and brimstone with religion but the current DUP are many former UUP members (Arlene Foster and Jeffery Donaldson spring to mind).

Yes they still have that fire and brimstone element. Our Sunday laws are totally different to the rest of the UK, they are against free choice abortion and gay marriage but they are progressive and not as right wing as they used to be.

In ways it strengthens the Union but in other ways it doesn't help NI's problems.

I don't think Theresa had any choice if she wanted to keep Conservatives in government but the DUP will work for the UK, not against it. The DUP were a BREXIT party so they will have a strong interest on what's best for the UK. There are things the DUP will not agree on but if the Conservatives can work with the LibDems then they can do business with the DUP. The only problem is this coalition is a bit smaller than the LibDems.

Like you said a few posts earlier I don't really know a lot about the DUP.

Maybe Tories can make it work for them without there being too much effect..

Otherwise we are ****ed.

 

[GlentoranMark]

Most of the issues they oppose are already enshrined in law and laws are notriously hard to repeal (e.g have 4p in your pocket or you're considered a vagrant) and these aren't really part of brexit or planned upcomming legislation. They also have always supported or at least offered to assist the tory agenda, it is rare they actually attend any votes in westminster though, like all NI politicians.

Utter rubbish, MP's fly daily from NI to London just like the Scottish MP's.