Will the increase in new Homebrewers be good for brewing and beer after Coronavirus passes?

[Alex.mc]

The Homebrew shops are busier than ever, and people are turning to homebrewing, potentially as "something to do" but also I believe because they always had a hankering to give it a go.
Some will fall by the wayside as life get's back to normal, but some will continue. Some of those may even enter the industry and take on a career in brewing given how many smaller breweries started from homebrewing.
What will it do for the drinks industry though? The Pub business is on it's knees currently, and many small breweries are really struggling, but some are adapting and doing okay. Will we see a shift from big pubcos to more smaller brewpubs and taprooms?

 

[stevey]

It's a good thing as long as it doesn't impact on supply of ingredients.
I think we've already seen a shift back to smaller micropubs and taprooms as they don't have the overheads of a large pub. This has been driven by the rise in popularity of real ale.
There has been a big rise in the number of new micro breweries and I would think most of these were homebrewers in the beginning.
Given the current situation, I think the days of tenanted pubs are numbered, you just can't compete with freehouses if you're tied to a brewery chain.
I think there will be a lot less pubs opening than closed at the beginning of April.

 

[Alex.mc]

My newest local brewery Anspach & Hobday moved into new premises shortly before the outbreak and lockdown. Fortunately they had just installed a brand new canning line as part of their install, and when I spoke to them they said they felt they'd been lucky with that and web sales were doing okay. They also seemed to know that there was opportunity to sell in new ways, and they were trying to embrace it and make something of it.
Their situation appears to hold promise, but other's have found it much harder and some gone under already.
I think you're right about tenanted pubs, the business model won't support very many tenants, and many will have to jack it in. There was a guy on the news last week saying his deferred rent was currently already at £24k, and he didn't know how he was going to ever catch it up.
If the parent pubcos are expecting a percentage to give up, and be able to easily replace them in the aftermath, I wonder if they're actually going to see that?

 

[stevey]

The parent pubco's prefer a turnover of tenants. Their plan is to change every 3 or 4 years, as there is always an upturn in sales after a change of Landlord. They increase rent in line with sales, it's impossible to earn a good living unless you fiddle the books and brewlines is tightening up on that, so profit decreases until you have no choice but to give notice. They don't allow you to register as a limited company, so they can always pursue you for the debt you will undoubtedy incur, and for the losses they incur if you just walk.

 

[MyQul]

On the way home through kennington I saw a few home printed flyers on lamp posts advertsing "cask ale straight to your door" A local pub (I assume it would be a brew pub) were "diversifying

 

[stevey]

On the way home through kennington I saw a few home printed flyers on lamp posts advertsing "cask ale straight to your door" A local pub (I assume it would be a brew pub) were "diversifying

Most of the micropubs in my area have been doing this since the start, but interestingly none of the larger pubs, who must have kegs going out of date.

 

[MyQul]

Most of the micropubs in my area have been doing this since the start, but interestingly none of the larger pubs, who must have kegs going out of date.

I've seen loads of larger pubs with piles of kegs outside that have been their for weeks

 

[MrRook]

The Homebrew shops are busier than ever, and people are turning to homebrewing, potentially as "something to do" but also I believe because they always had a hankering to give it a go.
Some will fall by the wayside as life get's back to normal, but some will continue. Some of those may even enter the industry and take on a career in brewing given how many smaller breweries started from homebrewing.

I am glad the home brew shops are so busy we have to wait a bit to get supplies as this should insure that most of them come through this mess in good shape.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I am glad the home brew shops are so busy we have to wait a bit to get supplies as this should insure that most of them come through this mess in good shape.

I wish we had one.

 

[An Ankoù]

I wish we had one.

I wish we had one, too.

 

[VW911]

I'm busier than ever. I've had to close our own website, as I can't keep up with demand.
I've already taken more on Amazon than the whole of last year.
I sincerely hope it continues after the lockdown eases, but I could really do with a rest!!!

 

[MrRook]

I wish we had one, too.

I wish I had one local. The two closest are over two hour drives away.

 

[Rodcx500z]

This lock down has been a boost for home brew sales, but the scary bit is if the pub trade is decimated all that lost tax has to come from somewere else

 

[An Ankoù]

This lock down has been a boost for home brew sales, but the scary bit is if the pub trade is decimated all that lost tax has to come from somewere else

Fear not, the pub trade will recover. When it does, the lost duty will go directly on pints, be sure of that. There are always people willing to pay daft prices.

 

[MyQul]

Fear not, the pub trade will recover. When it does, the lost duty will go directly on pints, be sure of that. There are always people willing to pay daft prices.

Yup. People will do and pay almost anything for alcohol. It's even been theorised that the transition from hunter gatherers to farming was because humans wanted to grow grain so they could brew beer