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Covid-19 the second wave.

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the_quick

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With the herd immunity and the whole idea of it, it is more question of morality and ethics not a political side. Lots more would die, lots would suffer long term (long Covid), lots people would be in hospitals - unless you decide not to threat them. what is the upside? It might work - not good enough for me.
 

jjsh

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There are scientists who disagree with your premise; if you look at the whole picture (i.e. the number of deaths caused by lockdown). I'm not sure where I stand, except to say that this deliberate mis-characterisation by the Guardian et al that the GBD people are saying 'sod it and let everyone die' is one of the most embarrassing pieces of pathetic journalism I have ever seen. Mind you, as a hatchet job, it's worked as many on here believe that is what is being proposed.
 

simon12

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With the herd immunity and the whole idea of it, it is more question of morality and ethics not a political side. Lots more would die, lots would suffer long term (long Covid), lots people would be in hospitals - unless you decide not to threat them. what is the upside? It might work - not good enough for me.
No the idea of natural herd immunity is you let the healthy people get it while protecting the venerable then in a few months the healthy people have had it and can no longer pass it to the venerable rather than putting the entire population into lockdowns and other restrictions and making the elderly have to stay at home for a year plus to not be at risk and being all in on hoping for a safe and effective vaccine which does look promising, but even best case scenario we are looking to need much more restrictions and likely a 3rd wave before we get there.
 

Cheshire Cat

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Why are we only protecting religious people what about the vulnerable one they should be protected too.
 

Linalmeemow

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Landlady from my old local was in Life of Brian, one of the women at the stoning. She was on holiday where they were filming and apparently the Pythons showed up at the hotel asking if anyone wanted to be in a film!
 

Chippy_Tea

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Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers.

Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells.

The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.

They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

"Immunity is waning quite rapidly, we're only three months after our first [round of tests] and we're already showing a 26% decline in antibodies," said Prof Helen Ward, one of the researchers.

The fall was greater in those over 65, compared with younger age groups, and in those without symptoms compared with those with full-blown Covid-19.

The number of healthcare workers with antibodies remained relatively high, which the researchers suggest may be due to regular exposure to the virus.


The news comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK rose by 60% in the week of 16 October.

The ONS figures suggest there have now been more than 60,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.

But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.

It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn.


Full article - Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
 

trueblue

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They were talking about this report on the radio today. It seems herd immunity is now not an option.
 

Chippy_Tea

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This virus (as has been said many times) isn't going away any time soon, the vaccine could be many many months away and its effect is now in question we are going to have to get used to living with the virus amongst us and deal with it as we can.
 

DavidDetroit

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So if a vaccine to achieve herd immunity is not a viable method what is?

Sounds more like we need to learn to live with it then
I could be mistaken but I thought "vaccines" and "herd immunity" weren't synonymous. Herd immunity is just a "let 'er rip and do nothing" and vaccines are a logical step by step way of inoculating like giving vaccines to those most in danger first.
 

Chippy_Tea

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Dave the BBC article i posted earlier gives me the impression they dont think the vaccine will be very effective long term.


Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers.

Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells.

The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.

They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times.

"Immunity is waning quite rapidly, we're only three months after our first [round of tests] and we're already showing a 26% decline in antibodies," said Prof Helen Ward, one of the researchers.

The fall was greater in those over 65, compared with younger age groups, and in those without symptoms compared with those with full-blown Covid-19.

The number of healthcare workers with antibodies remained relatively high, which the researchers suggest may be due to regular exposure to the virus.


The news comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK rose by 60% in the week of 16 October.

The ONS figures suggest there have now been more than 60,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies.

But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive.

It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn.


Full article - Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
 

simon12

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Liverpool, are they reaching herd immunity? are tier 3 restrictions working? a bit of both? I don't know but over 3.6% of everyone has tested positive (nearly the highest in the country), there recent high was nearly 0.7% positive a week and its still over 0.5% (so actual infections must be way over this). Cases are still around the highest in the country but have been dropping since the 12th. Hospital admissions and deaths seem to have stabilised or even fallen in the Midlands (though are still high) unlike most of the rest of the country.

For comparison Hartlepool went into tier 3 at the same time and cases seem to have stabilised but not fallen.

And in Middlesborough cases are still rising at a similar rate as before they wet into tier 3
 

Covrich

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I could be mistaken but I thought "vaccines" and "herd immunity" weren't synonymous. Herd immunity is just a "let 'er rip and do nothing" and vaccines are a logical step by step way of inoculating like giving vaccines to those most in danger first.
From how I understand you can achieve herd immunity by vaccination.

Unless I am mistaken I do not think even Pro herd immunity thinkers do not think lets send lambs to the slaughter.

However if immunity wanes then it casts doubt over vaccination for a longer term solution and it may just be we have to find a way to slowly carry on normal life now.

I hope I am wrong , I have always thought the hope for a silver bullet to come and put and end to it was a bit optimistic.
 

the_quick

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Natural herd immunity I think is now in the bin, with vaccine it can be achieved for a short time and people who get a vaccine could be recorded, so you know when it start to wane so you can get a booster shot. So basically multiple and regular vaccination - it is doable
 
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